Friday, September 17, 2004

Okay, let's talk some football now

I have searched deep into my soul, faced the honest truths I believe, and will now give my best attempt at fairly predicting Sunday's game between my two favorite teams...the Colts and the Titans.

I'll list Kennelworthy's Keys to the outcome of the game, and will tie things up after that with a summary statement.

THE KEYS:
-Chris Brown. If he plays, and isn't hampered by injury, the Titans stand a much better chance of winning. I'd go so far as to say they have almost no chance to win without him. Latest news indicates he's practicing and hoping to play. He's got a long injury history, and will likely be slowed or hindered by the ankle at least a tiny bit. But the Colts clearly cannot stop the run and the Titans will look to exploit that.

-Zach Pillar/Jacob Bell. Offensive line is crucial for the Titan's success. McNair won't have Calico to throw to, and he'll need time to find his target. Not only is Bell new, he's a total rookie. So while the Titans are saying he's doing great this week in practice (really, what did we think the team would say about him?) there's the whole game element that might rattle ol' Jacob. I know Pillar is far from ideal, but my problems with him have historically been bonehead roughing or personal fouls after the play. Let's also not forget that Chris Brown's success will depend on this O-line blocking for him. Might Bell be outstanding? Sure. But I'm skeptical.

-Mike Doss. He's out, and he's not only the best cover man in the Colts' D, he's their best defensive player overall (has the most skill and leadership and whatnot). I was heartbroken when he went down in the opener. Look for McNair to go right at Doss' inexperienced replacement.

-Edge, and the fumble factor. I think Edge is a professional enough to avoid the mental, self-doubting effects that might plague a lesser or younger back after a game like his opener. He looked outstanding running the ball in that game, though, and even the Titans are saying he's running better than ever. He might make or break the game. The Titans have historically been great at stopping the run, but lost some guys to free agency and injury that played a hand in that. And I don't think we can judge their run defense soley on their success at stopping a few crappy backs and one brand-new-to-the-scheme back in Miami. Edge is also a favorite passing target for Peyton.

-Desperation. The Colts cannot lose. They have to be feeling a playoff-game-like atmosphere in Indy these days. If they go down 0-2 they will have a tough divisional hole to climb out of. They'll come in every bit as hungry to win as the Titans (who are surely looking for payback for last season).

-Kicking. Vanderjact (sp?) missed his first field goal in more than a season last game. Will he have mental problems? Gary Anderson is great...for short kicks. If the game comes down to a field goal attempt of 45 yards or more for the Titans....and they're relying on Craig "Ow my back!" Hentrich to kick it....Titans' fans should be nervous. Also, punting. If Craig can't punt due to back trouble...sounds like Drew Bennet might punt. This could easily be a game completely decided by field position, so the punter for Tennessee will need to be great, whoever he is.

-QB's. The battle of the MVPs. Well, long before the Colts were good, while still a fan of both teams, I was always worried about McNair. He had a way of just chucking the ball out there (forcing some throws) that led to me getting nervous everytime he let it go. He has since then gotten a lot better in terms of accuracy and completion percentage. But I still have to give the edge to Peyton. He's the best QB in the league, day in and day out. And he has more weapons at his disposal than Steve does. And he has an amazing offensive line.

-Mascots. Who gives a crap. Both teams' mascots should be lined up and gang tackled...why does the NFL need mascots anyway? But the Colts do have some real cute cheerleaders. Hmmm.

-Weather. Doesn't sound like it'll be a factor. They're calling for sunny skies that day.

Summary: I like the Colts. I'm the furthest thing from a betting man, but if I was, I'd put my money on Indy. I like both teams, and clearly favor the Colts between the two (as far as my rooting goes), but I think I'm being unbiased here. Last year, when the Colts had lessor Edge, no Stokely, a broken leg on Dallas Clark, and a slightly less-experienced D...they owned the Titans. Last year, the Titans had more weapons at receiver, and a much more dominant-looking D, but also had an inferior running back to this year's squad. All in all, I think it comes down to a touchdown or field goal. But I just don't think teams are going to stop the Colts from scoring this year. Look at the Patriots game, against that D which the whole world seems to think is still one of the league's best. The Colts would have won that game by two or three touchdowns had Edge not fumbled and Peyton not been sacked at the end. I can say coulda woulda all day long, I know, but they were the better team in that game, they just didn't win it.

I love football season. This is going to be a great game either way, and I'm glad we'll get to watch it, instead of being force fed crappy match-ups like last week. (Oakland/Pittsburgh? How is this our region's game?! )


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