My Baseball Forecast

I'll always take a crack at this. One year, I might get all of these right--and it'll be the first and only time. Injuries, breakout stars, trades, and comeback players always ruin predictions.

NL EAST

Finally, the NL East looks like the best division in baseball, top to bottom. I've picked against my Braves for the past two years, and they manage to get it done. I'm picking them this year, which means everything will come to an end. What scares me most is Carlos Delgado going to the Marlins, a traditional Braves-killing team (although not last year)--Delgado has like a .400 average with 16 HRs against Braves' roster pitchers.

1. Atlanta
2. Florida-*
3. NY Mets
4. Philadelphia
5. Washington

I give Atlanta the edge, mainly because the pitchers on the Marlins have shown the ability to stumble or get injured. I look for this to be close (3 games either way) in the final two weeks. I think the Mets have the same problem on offense (although Beltran should provide cushion even if Piazza or Floyd goes down), and their pitching isn't staffed with 9-inning guys, so the bullpen is going to let them down. Philly and Washington just get buried under all of this--they'll be good teams though.

NL CENTRAL

1. St. Louis
2. Houston
3. Chicago Cubs
4. Cincy
5. Pittsburgh
6. Milwaukee

This is how they finished last year. I like St. Louis here, because I believe their hitting will continue to be awesome, and they added Mulder to their rotation. Houston and Chicago lost offense but still have good enough pitching to contend--although I think Chicago's losses on offense really sting, since they had problems there even with Sosa and Alou. With Cincy, Pitt, and Milwaukee all struggling with various injuries and lack of talent, they will be the bottom rung of this division no matter what.

NL WEST

1. San Francisco
2. LA Dodgers
3. San Diego
4. Colorado
5. Arizona

This flip-flops the order of the 1-2 teams from last year. Although Bonds will be out indefinitely, Pedro Feliz has shown pop--now he's no Bonds, but who is? I like their acquisitions, they have Alou cleaning up and Benitez closing. LA got some offense, which is what had hurt them in the past, but no more Beltre (although I have a comment on him when I get to the AL West), and their pitching can be suspect--even though Lowe showed he was big-time in the postseason, Red Sox fans were calling for his head during the season. I like San Diego's young guys getting more seasoning, and they should contend very closely--if either of the two top teams falter, they'll sneak in. I have nothing much to say about the Rockies or Diamondbacks except, good luck.

AL EAST

1. NY Yankees
2. Boston-*
3. Baltimore
4. Tampa Bay
5. Toronto

This is the exact same order as last year. Boston should be a little nervous that they lost Lowe and Pedro, although those guys are on the downside of their careers, they gave you fairly reliable innings after Schilling (who's hurt, and I fear might be playing that way all year). They're going to be better than most, but I look for Baltimore to step it up, and even possibly take Boston's 2nd place spot. Their offense should be killer, and their pitching should be serviceable. Really, when you talk about this division, you have no chance to beat the Yankees with the formidable rotation and consistent offense. Tampa is always improving but it's such a hard place to show progress. Toronto sucks.

AL CENTRAL

1. Cleveland
2. Minnesota
3. Chicago White Sox
4. Detroit
5. Kansas City

This flips the top 3 spots around. I like Cleveland because their offense is very good, they added Millwood who's not the best but should win more than not, they have Cliff Lee who emerged as a great starter last year. They have a decent bullpen. I like Minnesota, but I think it's going to be a dogfight this year. I'm not all that certain why they've become a vogue World Series pick, since they're essentially the same team, just without Cristian Guzman. I look for it to be very close here.

AL WEST

1. Texas
2. LA Angels
3. Oakland
4. Seattle

There wasn't much visible upward movement here in the offseason, although Seattle picked up Beltre--and I believe that while he had a tremendous season last year, I think some of that had to do with his contract. Remember, Beltre was always disappointing to the Dodgers until last year, all of the sudden, he was Barry Bonds. Oakland disposed of two aces, and now must rely on unproven guys to win the bulk of their games, which I believe translates into "rebuilding." I also believe that the LA Angels losing Glaus (who didn't play most of last season's pennant-winning year) and the troubled Jose Guillen (who helped them tremendously until his "firing") hurts a little, although their offense should still be decent. I like Texas, they won nearly 90 games last year, and they have the best offense in the division--in a place where the pitching is not all that stellar, I see them winning out.

PLAYOFFS (Playoffs? All I want to do is win a damn game!)

NLDS

Atlanta beats San Francisco
Florida beats St. Louis

ALDS

New York beats Cleveland
Boston beats Texas

NLCS

Atlanta beats Florida

ALCS

New York beats Boston

WORLD SERIES

Atlanta beats New York

Hey, I can dream. In such a matchup I'd pick Atlanta due to the fact that, despite the perfect game tossed against them last year by Johnson, they've usually hit him decent enough to win in a close game (especially Chipper Jones). There's a certain kind of confidence that the Braves have right now, I don't know if it's warranted, but the addition of Hudson, the return of Horacio Ramirez (last year's best pitcher for the Braves until he got hurt) with the OK offense, seems to be the reason. And for me, to have confidence in the Braves is rare. It's going to be real tough for them to do it--I can see the Marlins coming back and facing the Yanks, too. I don't know if I can see anyone else from the AL making the Series, though.