Wednesday, April 23, 2008

Dem Dems, and the Hunt for November

First of all, I'm enjoying this. For someone like me that views these political events like a sporting event, it's a lot of fun. Dems will be unhappy that, instead of a healthy contest improving both
candidates, both are dragging each other in the mud. But it's still
certainly entertaining.

Now the Superdelagates have to ask themselves; which of the two is most likely to win in November? I generally think in terms of battleground states. Take a look at the map. Does it matter at all that Obama won the deep South and much of the Midwest? Who cares about a Democrat's popularity there? If any of these areas are in play in November, then the Dem candidate wins in a landslide regardless of who is the candidate. On the same point, who cares who wins California, Vermont, or Massachusetts? If any of these states are in play, then McCain has won 40 states on his way to 1600.

What really matters are the states that can swing either way, the ones we always look at in November. I'm talking about Ohio, Pennsylvania, Missouri, and Florida. I'm sure I've left out a couple more, but those are the big four that come to mind. Of the four, Hillary won the first three, and just barely lost Missouri two months ago. I bet if they had a do-over in Missouri she'd win there are well, but that's just a guess. So which of the two is the strongest candidate in a national election? I'm open to counter-debate, but I'd pick her for the moment.

Meanwhile, the Repubs are very, very lucky McCain was the winner. They need someone to distance themselves from Bush, and they have that. They need someone who appeals to moderates, and he is the best example in the party. He may be the only Repub that fits both roles. And it certainly doesn't hurt that he's a war hero. Look for the VP to come from one of the battleground states I mentioned earlier, leaving Huckabee with merely a speech in the convention, and maybe not even in prime time.

I also think that Obama and Clinton will sort it out before the convention, then make nice, and one will choose the other as VP. Things just seem to happen that way in politics, where it's all happiness and joy and short memories.

I'm sure some of this will look as good as when I predicted "The Colbert Report" wouldn't last six months, but I think I'm closer than some. I'll be voting for McCain, but not only because I usually lean right. I also want a split DC, and there's no way the Dems are losing either house of Congress.



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