Titans/Colts, part III

Of course, I have a stat-driven take on anything in sports and I am a fiend when it comes to raiding sports history for information. And using last year's totals, I believe, are a good measure since these teams are not much different from last year.

Last year's games:

Colts 33 Titans 7 (in Indy)

An absolute drubbing that was made further painful by a late Billy Volek interception run 75 yards back for a touchdown by Nick Harper. Essentially, there was no chance to win a game that was 26-7 at the time. In this game:

Manning: 14-21, 173 yds, 1 TD
Edge: 30 rush, 120 yds, 1 TD

TE Dallas Clark had 4 rec, 63 yds., Harrison 3 for 59 to make up the bulk of Manning's day.

McNair: 15-24, 138 yds, 1 TD (to Calico)
Total rushing yds: 53 (George had 46)

WR Derrick Mason had 10 rec, 98 yds. There were many other receivers who got some yards during garbage time.

Turnovers: McNair lost a fumble, Volek threw an interception when the game was over, essentially. The Colts did not turn the ball over.

Colts 29 Titans 27 (in Nashville)

The Titans came back from a 29-14 deficit and failed on a 2-point conversion at the end.

Manning: 22-34, 228 yds
Edge: 28 rush, 97 yds, 2 TD

WR Harrison had 124 yards, including a one-handed, stretching-the-length-of-his-body dive for a catch I'll never forget.

McNair: 22-38, 235 yds, 2 TD
George, Brown, and McNair combined for 94 yards (Holcombe had a -1 carry to make it 93), George 51 of them.

Three receivers had big days: McCareins (4 rec, 76 yds), Mason (6/64, 1 TD), Kinney (4/41)

Do you see what I notice in all of this? The best run defense gave up 217 yards and 3 touchdowns to Edgerrin James. And despite keeping a streak alive by not allowing a 100-yard rusher at home again, Edge ran for 97 in that game at the Coliseum--at that point we're splitting hairs.

The Colts allowed 146 rushing yards total in those two games, but we can't focus on that too much because we know what Eddie George is in this point of his career.

Let's also take note that the Titans are playing some off-field games with the Colts by listing guys as questionable or out when they are going to play. Chris Brown is going to play, guys. There really is no question.

Tight ends were big for the Titans, as Kinney and Shad Meier racked up over 100 yards in both games, tremendous output for that position. The same goes for the Colts, however.

The pass defense of the Titans actually came out pretty good, and if not for the miraculous catch of Harrison, would have held Manning to well under 400 total in both games. As we know, Manning is capable of hitting that in one game. I wonder if the Titans decided to protect more against the pass, which allowed Edge's big days.

We can't focus on games played previously to swing our vote one way or another. Last year, before the 33-7 asskicking, the Colts beat the Browns 9-6. I'm sure that instilled Colts fans with a ton of confidence going into the Titan game (the Titans beat the Raiders 25-20, but no one knew that the Raiders were going to suck so badly). Adjustments are always made, and matchups are different, so week 2 will vary enormously from week 1.

So what do we know? Here are some things:

Edgerrin James will be able to run effectively in this game.
Steve McNair will be able to throw effectively in this game.
Peyton Manning was clearly challenged in both games.

X-Factors: Chris Brown is better than Eddie George, and if you get a better rushing offense then you will be able to keep the Colts off the field longer, which was clearly a sore spot last year (64:44-55:16, Colts, in the two combined games, but where it mattered most was in the close game--33:54-26:06) I think we all agree it's going to be close, so that stat is important. If you can sway 4-5 minutes on that ratio, that might be one less score for the opposition. The laugher game was close in TOP but only because the Colts struck so quickly and played a bunch of garbage football in the end. Turnovers, I can't predict, but by looking at last year's stats where the Colts turned the ball over not one time to the Titans' six (Game 1: McNair fumbled, Volek got intercepted, Game 2: McCareins fumbled, Eddie Berlin fumbled twice, and Shad Meier fumbled), you'd give the edge to the Colts. What's interesting is that the stats for TOP and turnovers just don't match the scores from those games.

Here's what I think, though: the Colts cannot rely on turnover ratio or a miraculous catch to win this game. And you can't predict these factors, just like injuries, in coming up with a solid prediction.

Truly, you'll realize this from me and I know I'm in the minority here when it comes to this, but I do not believe in the following things:

-Games played for revenge. People always bring this up in analysis of a game. I find it to be an incredibly inaccurate measure of who actually wins in these games. Even if you were able to come up with actual revenge games in which the team seeking revenge got it, I can give you 2 more that refute this claim. In this case, I am throwing out the "revenge" factor for the Titans after losing 2 games last year to the Colts.

-A team just willing itself not to be 0-2 or whatever bad situation that losing would bring. This is the NFL and everyone plays to win, and just because one team has motivation not to be 0-2, there is another team that has motivation not to be 1-1, added to that the prospect of losing an early division game. If the Colts have a true edge due to motivation, then I'll never watch a Titans game again.

-This doesn't apply in this case, but I do not believe in teams "looking ahead to next week," either. This is the same "stat" as the revenge factor. These aren't concrete things and cannot be measured, and therefore, meaningless. The only thing I truly believe in is confidence. I believe a team that didn't have it before will lose most of the time, and if something occurs that gives the team confidence (like a good practice, a good game plan that is executed, good decisions, plays, etc., in other words, concrete displays of goodness) they will likely win most of the time.

With the above factors figured in I take the Titans in this game, 34-24. Yeah, I'm not picking that close of a game, actually. It boils down to the fact that I think the Titans have a better defense than the Colts and they have a better rushing offense than last year, which is what I believe the stats say cost the Titans last year. In other words, my reasoning goes this way: Allowing certain factors that you believe to be concrete, what are the factors that either change the outcome or make the outcome the same? I believe the evidence points this way, may the players on the field prove one way or the other.