The Truth About the NFL Playoffs

I know we live in a world of entertainment, and media outlets try to put every spin possible on an upcoming game to make people want to watch, but sometimes I hear some absolutely ludicrous crap.

I've heard a lot of people say Carolina is going to beat Chicago this weekend. I wouldn't be surprised if it happened, but I'm picking Chicago. One week's worth of games, I swear I've heard every single top seed is going down this next week. I've heard people picking Pittsburgh over Indy, New England over Denver, and Washington over Seattle.

Here's a stat. Since 2000, the top seed, meaning the team that had a week off and plays at home, is 16-4. Two years in the 2000-2004 span, all 4 top seeds won. In the 90s, top seeds in the divisional playoffs were 33-7, for a total of 49-11 in 15 years. 5 of the 15 years, all top seeds won. Now, this means that there will likely be an upset this weekend. But top seeds have never posted less than a 2-2 record (and even that has happened only twice).

If you're looking for "upsets" then that New England and Denver game is prime. But the whole "rust" issue has been a mountain-out-of-molehill argument for years. The stats don't lie.

This week, I think Indy takes Pittsburgh, despite the long time off Indy has had. There's something called practice that NFL players participate in a whole bunch that apparently makes them sharper. I do think New England beats Denver, even though that's not exactly going out on a limb. I just think the Pats are better than the Broncos. I like Chicago over Carolina. I definitely like Seattle over Washington.

So I'm picking another 3-1 year for top seeds, which is the most common of all the records you see over the past 15 years (It's happened 8 times).