Why the Steelers Can Take the Colts

As my first post to this blog, I'm sticking up for my team. No one...except former players and die hard fans are picking the Steelers to advance to the AFC Championship game. And I must say that based on historical numbers, who can blame them? The only team to win 3 road games and adavance to the Super Bowl was the Pats in '85, and the Steelers have only won one road game in the playoffs under Bill Cower.

The Steelers lost convincingly to the Colts earlier this year, but were not playing their best--while the Colts were at the height of their winning streak. I want to make one thing VERY clear. I am NOT guaranteeing a Steelers victory, nor am I taking bets on who the victor will be. I am saying that this will be a much closer game than the experts think, and the Steelers have as good a chance as any team to win on the road this weekend.

The earlier game set the struggling Steelers against the healthy and unbeatable Colts. The Steelers limped into this game with a loss to Baltimore, an offensive line that couldn't block MTSU, and a Ben Roethilsberger that has just missed a month and was still not recovered from knee surgery. Now, the Colts won fair and square, and we were out played on that fateful Monday night. The Colts' home field took over and, regardless of what Joey Porter said this week, they physically beat Pittsburgh.

Ah, how times have changed. I don't know that Indy will feel the effects of the bye week, but I do think a certain rust factor will be in place because Indy hasn't played a meaningful game in over a month. Further, when their starters were in during that time, they looked less than stellar. Their opponents got to Peyton, and their defense looked awfully pedestrian against the Cards' juggernaught. During that period, the Steelers have won 5 in a row by an average of 16 points (take out the Browns game and it's still over 10 points per game). The offensive line has improved, giving up just 1.6 sacks per game during those 5 games, and they have averaged 142 yards on the ground. They are not turning the ball over --they've only done so 4 times in those games--and they have sacked the quarterback 3 times per game.

The Steelers are peaking at the right time, and the Colts are a bit mysterious. How will they respond to the Tony Dungy tragedy? Can they just turn the "greatness" switch off and on whenever they choose? How's it going to feel when their offensive starters get hit (hard, very, very hard) for an entire game? That's something that hasn't happened since they were hit (hard, very, very hard) against San Diego. We all know what happened in that game when their streak was on the line.

There is no doubt that the Colts are a very good football team, and should be the favorites to win the Superbowl. Just don't forget the failures of Dungy and Manning in the playoffs (or in Peyton's case in the post-season EVER). The Colts have made defensive improvements and are always a threat on offense, but if the Steelers can get to Manning, and stop the run, watch for a great game. The Steelers are battle tested and ready to physically abuse the Colts. Don't discount the Steelers' chances...they're MUCH better than you think.