Ending the Prediction Game

Predictions are fun...until you correctly pick 3 out of 10 for the entire playoffs.

And so, the Super Bowl is exactly as it was envisioned from about Week 8 in the season, the two teams that were going for an undefeated season for awhile, the two teams that looked unstoppable and then suddenly looked stoppable and then proved unstoppable.

Colts/Saints should be a fantastic Super Bowl. If there is one thing about being wrong that feels so right, it's getting a matchup like this.

The thing about the prediction game during these playoffs is seeing a team you believe in completely self-destruct. Nowhere was this more apparent than in the Vikings/Saints game tonight, where the Vikings were so clearly better than their competition on this given night that you swear they should have won the game by about 21 points.

Brett Favre, as I have seen time and again, can amaze me with his ability and in one fell swoop make me think he's the worst quarterback I've ever seen. That interception before overtime...I sat there and said, "Oh, well, looks like he's going to run the ball and get a good amount of yards and Longwell will get the field goal try and oh look he's throwing across his body across the field and...yeah, you just pissed the game away." Keep in mind, even if that pass was incomplete, that would have been a massive failure. There was no real reward for the risk he was taking, and it befuddles me how time and again we've seen Favre do this. It's why I never got completely on board the "Favre is God" bandwagon. Tough guy, amazing ability...where is this guy's head?

I was going to reiterate, even if the Jets had won today, that the Colts probably played their starters in Week 17 more than what could have been truly classified as "resting" to the full extent of the phenomenon. But now that the Saints are in, it doesn't really matter. No matter how you slice it, a team that rested its starters is in the Super Bowl for the first time in ages.

And for my Super Bowl prediction...I pick the team that a Manning has ever played for.

Conference Championship Games

As many of you know, I am essentially bound by this working theory (re: resting the starters in Week 17 and Super Bowl success) to pick the Vikings and the Jets this Sunday. There might not be a more difficult challenge to this theory than these games.

One thing that is nearly impossible to find out in this whole thing is how many teams made the Super Bowl by playing their starters for a half in that final game. You can look at stats and figure out whether they played or not and whether they made many plays, but you can't tell what the overall situation was. It might actually be wrong to say the Colts rested their starters enough to qualify for this phenomenon, because many of the guys were in that final game trying to achieve individual records (Manning went 14-18 for 95 yards in that final game against the Bills). There have been teams that played their starters for a half or less and went to the Super Bowl, but not many.

In the past, with bye weeks, the Colts played their starters very briefly before pulling them, then usually lost in the playoffs. This year, they played a little bit more than usual.

This upcoming game with the Jets is loaded with all sorts of tidbits. We start with the fact that the Colts paved the way for the Jets to make the playoffs in Week 16 by pulling the starters in the third quarter, leading to a 29-15 loss. The prevailing sentiment about that game, as close as it was, is that Manning had solved the Jets' blitz and was ready to just go on a rampage against their defense. I again call the "there is no way to look at an alternate universe" rule for this. We just don't know what would have happened. It's as if most analysts don't believe in teams making adjustments, as if the Jets would have simply played the exact same game that they were playing and would have been helpless against Manning. We just don't know.

Some people could say, "Well the Jets will feel disrespected that the Colts laid down for them and they don't deserve to be here," and the Jets will therefore get "mad" and show the Colts but good. I certainly don't believe in that. It's just as easy to say the Colts allowed a team in the playoffs that very well took care of a long-time nemesis (the Chargers) for them and now they'll have a much easier road to the Super Bowl because of it.

If the Jets are going to win, they have to stay away from penalties. The Colts, already a relentless offensive team that nickels and dimes teams to death with lots of "We've got 'em 3rd and 4 boys!" only to see the Colts complete an easy slant route right at the 1st down marker, don't need any help. They played a lot of close games that if their opponents had just cut down on mistakes, had a good chance to turn the game. Even last week's Ravens game, where the Colts won handily 20-3, was one play from being interesting, and that play was Ed Reed's interception that turned into a fumble recovery for the Colts. You ever see a guy holding the ball, thinking there's no way he's keeping it if he gets hit? I thought that way not only about Reed but later, Ray Rice. You sit there and go, "Oh no...this guy's losing the ball," and then to no surprise, he does. Hate to say something cliche, but the Jets have to stay away from turnovers, too.

The Jets will be playing an even worse run defense than the Chargers this weekend, which favors them greatly. The emergence of Shonn Greene cannot be underplayed. The Jets are also a better defense than the Ravens. The Jets have to stop the Colts from getting those easy passes, limit touchdowns, run the ball, not get penalized or turn the ball over to win this game. It's a tall task. The other thing they'll need to do: not allow Peyton Manning to have the ball with two minutes left in either half. The Colts will try to score in those minutes and have a great success rate. Think again how different that Ravens game would have been if they hadn't given the Colts such an easy 7 points at the end of the 1st half by dropping passes and not running the clock down in that last possession. The Ravens cut out about three easy-to-fix mistakes and that game is going down to the wire.

I think the Jets will cut out those mistakes and will win this game Sunday. If not, it'll be one of those 34-14 games.

As for the Vikings and Saints, I think we're still not entirely certain what team we're getting with the Saints this weekend. The Saints got a favorable Divisional matchup against an Arizona defense that couldn't stop anything (gave up 90 points in two playoff games, which is a record), lost Kurt Warner and most of the starting secondary. Meanwhile, the Vikings beat a team that by all measures was playing the best heading into the playoffs and looked primed for a Super Bowl run. They just killed them.

I think the Vikings play much better than the Cardinals, which is not a stretch by any means, will score more points, and will make this a closer game. If it's in any way close, I like my chances with Favre should the Vikings need to score in the closing minutes. This matchup is so good on paper. Too bad it'll probably end up being 47-28 by the time it's over.

So there's my reasoning. Looking forward to it.

But I Will Still Take Credit...

Hey, I went 1-4 in picks this weekend, but the one was special: Jets over Chargers. Awesome.

Still a chance that the Super Bowl will have two teams that played their starters in Week 17...Vikings and Favre versus his "old" team the Jets, completing the Favre trifecta for the year. Holy crap.

Almost every potential Super Bowl matchup has intrigue: we could have Favre versus Manning, Saints/Colts and all of that backstory...the only real bad one would be Saints/Jets, the only intrigue there being...a rematch of Week 4.

Depeche Mode Responds to My Predictions

Click here to listen to Depeche Mode's analysis concerning my predictions of this Saturday's games.

I mentioned it before, the "resting the starters" theory would be put to the test this year because of the weak AFC. There is a reason why the Ravens were 9-7 this year, and they showed why in this game tonight against the Colts: bad penalties, dropped passes, and incredibly poor clock management.

I get the sense that most games are within a play or two of being completely different from the final result, and the Ravens truly botched making this game a lot closer than it was. I texted Kennelworthy during this game, discussing how even more pissed off I am at this team for this performance in light of their playoff games against the Titans in the past.

The AFC now has only one team that can keep this theory going: the Jets.

The Saints/Cardinals game is a wash on the "resting the starters" discussion. Both teams were guilty of it. However, it didn't look like it hurt the Saints that much. Of course, the Cardinals were short-handed on both sides of the ball for much of the game. Not that it looked like it would have mattered.

Oh, and one more thing: Dan Dierdorf pulled off one of those great announcer comments that, without any possible way of seeing an alternate universe, took the results of tonight's game as irrefutable proof that "...the Colts rested their starters, and it worked." Since we will never know what would have happened had they played their starters, this comment is officially null and void. And with the history of the Colts and this issue, they took a big gamble. I really don't care what happened tonight.

It'll be funny if, after all that, we still get the matchups that the regular season promised: Vikings/Saints, Colts/Chargers...it's what everyone wanted, we may well get it.

Picking Them This Weekend

Well, I went 2-2 with my picks this weekend. Could have gone 3-1 with that Packers/Cardinals game (sorry Doc...that was a horrible way to lose. I imagined the worst at your household when I saw that last play).

What we know about the "resting the starters in week 17" deal is that it is far worse for bye week teams to do it because they essentially have two weeks off. So, it was not surprising to see the Cardinals pull that game off this weekend. Still, I was rooting for their demise because it would have worked well with the theory. No matter the result, though, no one game proves anything.

What we do know now is that the Cardinals, with a playoff win under their belt, probably sidestep a good portion of what "resting the starters" means for most teams. After this game, the Cards have officially played their starters, and now they play a Saints team that took two weeks off. I pick the Cardinals to absolutely roll in this weekend's Divisional. If that holds true, I think they lose to whoever comes out of the other Divisional, because:

Both the Vikings and Cowboys played their starters in the final week, so I must stick with my guns on this no matter who comes out of the Saints/Cardinals game. That said, I pick the Cowboys to win their matchup with the Vikings. The Cowboys have a more complete team than the Vikings, and are playing extremely well right now. They probably feel they can beat just about anybody after handing the Saints their first loss, and it should continue here.

In the AFC, we have a really difficult set of games here. No doubt both the Colts and the Chargers will be highly favored in their games this weekend, because the lowly 5 & 6 seeds lucky to be here made it past the Wild Card weekend.

I'm saying it right now: the Ravens will beat the Colts. This is a rematch of a week 11 game that the Colts were lucky to win, and at the time the Colts were actually playing, and not quitting games like at the end of the season. Plus, it looks like the Ravens decided to back off on the penalties or things that could lead to penalties this weekend against a Patriots team that historically gets lots of calls. That led to the Ravens' demise in many close games this year, and I think they're a much better team than a 6th seed would lead most to believe.

The Ravens defense is not as scary as in years past, but they are still the 3rd-ranked defense in the league, and if they cut down their mistakes, this should be a game they win by 7-10 points.

Now we come to the Jets/Chargers. The Chargers will be the biggest favorite this weekend, bar none. I would like everyone to consider this, though: the Jets have the number one ranked defense in the league, allow the least points and touchdowns, and have been playing for their lives for the past three weeks. Yeah, teams laid down for them, but they kept that Colts game close while the Colts were still playing for real, and the Bengals would have gotten beat anyway.

Meanwhile, the Chargers went through the final games of the season playing the Titans in what amounted to a scrimmage (the Chargers' backups ended up in that game), then playing the starters very little in that final game against the Redskins, and now have had a bye week.

I'm saying that these two teams are a lot closer than you think they are. According to Pro-Football-Reference.com, in fact, the Jets expected win-loss differential is roughly 11-5, while the Chargers also are closer to an 11-5 team. You have to think about what the Jets had to go through with a rookie QB and they had some rough patches, and we saw the emergence of Shonn Greene in the last game as their top RB. Their offense just put up 24 points on a better defense, the Bengals. Plus, you have a team that didn't expect to be here and are coming off a solid win.

I'm saying it, and may be the only one outside of New York with the balls to say it: The Jets are going to beat the San Diego Chargers. If you believe also a team can be "overconfident" or if you get into the Bill Simmons' wacky set of reasons like "nobody believed in us," then you must believe that a team like the Jets can sneak up on the Chargers.

If my predictions are true, you would have Jets-Ravens in the AFC Championship, and lots of people snoring and CBS executives jumping off a bridge. At least they'd get a New York team, I guess.

You know, if I'm completely wrong, I'm still having fun looking at these playoffs in a different way. If I end up right about all this, all the better.

The NFL Playoffs are Full of Randomness

There are "scripts" we've all seen before in sports, where we get to expect certain outcomes to happen. These ideas can come about fairly quickly, or can slowly form for decades. In the NFL, we see patterns emerge, and we expect them to continue... but this year they haven't. The Cowboys were not bad in December, actually winning a few games and making the playoffs. The Jets made it into the playoffs with luck actually treating their fans decently for once. Heck, the Saints won their first ten games or so, reversing a trend that goes back decades, even though it's not quite so surprising anymore. I think that more than once in the playoffs, we're going to have our minds blown by a result that we didn't see coming.

Along those line, I'm starting to think that, now that we all believe it's a bad idea to rest starters in the final few weeks, suddenly that doesn't mean anything. Think of quantum physics, that by observing a particle it changes the particle. Now that we've observed the phenomenon, it will no longer exist. As Chris pointed out, seven teams rested there starters, and we can't ignore them all. The "football gods" no longer care about this.

Stick with me for a second with a soccer comparison? Nations come to have a certain identity on the pitch, and in the World Cup and other such competitions, you start to have a general idea of what's going to happen. Everybody, including myself, felt that Germany would beat Spain in the finals of the Euro 2008 tournament. As they say, "football" is a game that's played for 90 minutes, and then the Germans win on penalties. This held true for decades, basically since Germany reemerged in the 50's. And Spain always underachieves, always, in every major tournament, again going back decades. Almost no one predicted Spain to win, based on historical precedent alone. So what happened in the final? Spain won, and convincingly. It felt, and still feels, that a new era is upon us, one in which I expect the scripts to be flipped... but I expect as soon as we figure out the new script, it will change.

Before the season ended, I assumed the Vikings and Saints would lose quickly, because they always do. I thought the hot team would continue to win, and the teams that rested their starters would struggle. But now that I'm thinking some of the scripts will change, I'm rethinking that, and beginning to believe that about anything could happen. The Saints could suddenly turn it around, the Eagles could catch fire, anything could happen, much like the Cards last year. We could even be headed for one weird Super Bowl. Let's just hope that that doesn't mean a Cardinals-Ravens Super Bowl, but I wouldn't be shocked.

As far as official picks go, I just don't know, there's way too much in the air this year. I do feel a Colts/Pats rematch could be in the cards, and I feel strongly that we'll be looking at a Vikings/Packers rematch as well. THAT would be a great championship Sunday, don't you think? But it's too much of a crapshoot, and I don't trust any team.

Except for one. For the Super Bowl, I think Manning will want to prove this whole not playing at the end of the season stuff isn't going to keep them from the title, and he has the mindset to do it. We all think they are one of the best three or four teams in the league, but I think they are the most mentally strong, starting with the QB, the real leader of this team. That'll put them over the top to win it all. If I have to choose an NFC team I'll choose the Pack, but I think that conference is wide open.

Or maybe I'm totally full of crap. Their lifeless coach could bomb them. We'll see.

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One more thing, off subject: all Week 17 games need to be played at the same time, say 2:00 Eastern Time. I know this would cost the NFL a few bucks, but it would decrease the number of games where a team simply roles over, like the Bengals did. The World Cup does this in the final game of each group so that games like this don't happen again, with a scoreline agreed upon before the game.

Teams That Won't Make the Super Bowl This Year

So, knowing what we know now about resting your starters versus playing them, and how there is an unbelievable, un-spotted record concerning this statistic, we can point out the teams that won't likely be attending the Super Bowl this year. These teams either played their starters very little or not at all.

Indianapolis Colts, repeating a sad tradition.

New Orleans Saints, already fading as it is, may very well have an early exit.

Those two teams played their starters the least, and in the Colts' case, they did it for two weeks, and now a bye week. These teams will be going in cold. They may very well lose their first playoff game. Even if they make it past their first game, they will lose the Championship game against whomever they play.

I also have concerns about, yes, the San Diego Chargers. Playing hot, they pulled the starters pretty early and now they have a bye week. History is not good for these teams, even like the Chargers. They may get a break with how weak the AFC is this year, but I would not be surprised if they got beat. It's just the way this final game, playing your starters or not, works, especially for a team getting a bye week and essentially will be off for 2 weeks.

Also, the Cincinnati Bengals aren't exactly high on the list, either. That was a woeful performance against the Jets, who I think have a chance to sneak up on some teams and I pick to beat these same Bengals in the playoffs this upcoming weekend.

The Arizona Cardinals will also likely lose to their Week 17 opponent, the Packers, after resting their starters. It's not as bad when you don't also have a bye week, but they aren't going to the Super Bowl regardless.

These teams played their starters for the most part or all of the game:

Vikings, Cowboys, Eagles, Packers, Patriots, Ravens, Jets.

If history repeats itself, it will be two of these teams in the Super Bowl. Weird, huh? Can you imagine any of those AFC teams being the representative? That's why the Chargers might be the first team in at least a decade (I haven't done the research that far) to make the Super Bowl after significantly resting their starters. Still, don't be shocked if they lose.

The Patriots lost Wes Welker, by the way, by doing the right thing. I see that and I still think you need to play your starters. There are two things that are troublesome for the facts at hand:

1. You can injure your starters by playing them in the last game. Of course, it's completely OK if you injure your starters for the season in the first game of the year. No one second-guesses you then.

2. There is still a chance a team that rests their starters makes it to the Super Bowl, especially if you have a conference as weak as the AFC is this year.

I still believe in what the facts tell me, though. Even if there is an anomaly this year, the evidence is overwhelming on what you should do.

Picks for Wild Card games this weekend:

Patriots over Ravens
Jets over Bengals
Cowboys over Eagles
Packers over Cardinals

If true, this would set up these match-ups:

Patriots at Chargers
Jets at Colts
Cowboys at Vikings
Packers at Saints

I'm not going to venture any further, considering I could be completely wrong about my Wild Card picks, but those are some very interesting match-ups for the Divisional games.

The Colts Are Headed Towards Repeating A Losing History

Really, does anyone ever think anymore? Why is it conventional wisdom to rest your starters and play your scrubs if you've clinched everything you can possibly clinch in the regular season? Oh, because of injuries, right? Whatever, you don't have much of a chance anyway if you don't play your starters in the final week.

Super Bowl winners this decade, and what they did in the final week of the season:

The 2000 Ravens played their starters the whole game in a 34-20 win over the Jets. The Super Bowl runner-up Giants also played their starters. This year, it looks like all the teams played their starters for most or all of the final game.

2001 Patriots, same, in a 38-6 win over Panthers. The Pats eventual opponent, the Rams, would also play their starters in the final game. Most teams play their starters in this playoff year, except for the Eagles and Bucs in the final game, against each other. They would play each other the next week, and someone had to win, and it was the Eagles. In an anomaly, the Eagles then beat the Bears (who played their starters in the final week) in Chicago. The Rams took care of the Eagles the following week.

2002 Buccaneers, yep, in a 15-0 win in cold weather over Chicago. Their opponent, the Raiders, also played their starters. The 49ers didn't, and needed an 18-point rally and a miracle catch by Terrell Owens to win their next playoff game against the Giants, and then they got destroyed by the Bucs. All the other teams played starters.

The 2003 Patriots, who had clinched 1st round bye already, beats Buffalo 31-0 with Brady throwing 4 TDs. The Super Bowl runner-up Panthers also played their starters in the last game. Most teams here did play their starters, except the Broncos, who would get crushed by the Colts 41-10 in the playoffs.

2004 Patriots, in a very interesting case study for this argument. They had already clinched the 2 seed, went in and beat the 49ers in what was a bad game, 21-7. Meanwhile, the Steelers went 15-1, running their scrubs against the Bills in a 29-24 win. In their playoff game against the Jets, they won in OT 20-17 only because Jets kicker Doug Brien missed TWO field goals in the final TWO minutes of the game. They then got drubbed at home 41-27 by the Pats.

The Colts also trotted out their backups in the final game against Denver, lost that game, then destroyed the Broncos the next week in the playoffs. Then, lost to the Pats 20-3.

The 2005 Steelers had to win their last game. But check this out: The Bengals, Patriots, Jaguars, and yes, the Colts, played scrubs in the final game. The Jags and Pats played each other, so someone had to win there and it was the Pats, who would lose to the Broncos, who played all their starters in a meaningless game in the final game of the season. The Colts lost their game against the Steelers. The Bengals notably lost Carson Palmer in their game against Pittsburgh, so data is skewed there, but how do we know he didn't get creamed because his O-line was out of sync? Basically, both AFC Championship reps played their starters in the final game.

The Steelers' opponent, the Seahawks, are the closest to bucking the trend. But it looks like for the most part, they played their starters in the final game despite some replacements towards the end. The lone team that didn't play their starters was the Bears, and they lost to the Panthers.

2006 Colts. They finally win, and this time they played their starters in a final game where they needed to win to clinch the 3 seed. They beat Miami 27-22. It looks like all 6 of the AFC reps played their starters in the final game. The Bears amazingly made the Super Bowl with a QB controversy, but they played their starters. The Eagles rested, barely beat an 8-8 Giants team, lost to the Saints, who also rested their starters, and then the Saints lost to the Bears, 39-14.

2007 Giants. They memorably played their future Super Bowl opponent Patriots in the final game. They had nothing to play for except to beat an undefeated team, and nearly did, losing 38-35. In the AFC, the Jaguars rested their starters and won a close game against the Steelers the next week, then lost to the Pats. The Colts would eventually rest their starters against the Titans in the final week, then lose to the Chargers in their first playoff game. In fact, the Chargers were playing hurt in that game and still won.

2008 Steelers. Ben Roethlisberger got hurt in a meaningless game against the Browns, and predictably, there were questions about whether it was wise or not to play him. But they blasted the Browns 31-0 and Roethlisberger was OK. Meanwhile, the Titans and Colts played it safe in their final game against each other, and both got bounced in their first games. The 8-8 Chargers took care of the Colts, and the Ravens beat the Titans. Yes, both winners played their starters in the final game. The other AFC rep, the Dolphins, played their starters but lost to the Ravens.

The NFC contender Cardinals, of course, went 9-7 and barely looked like a playoff team, but they played their starters in the final game. All the NFC teams did, in fact, except the Giants, who got bounced by an equally questionable Eagles team in their first playoff game.

Every team who won the Super Bowl this decade played their starters in the final game, and didn't take them out in the second half or anything. Guys, this is a remarkable fact. It doesn't guarantee you a Super Bowl win, but it gives you a better chance than a team that rests their starters. Not one team this decade has won the Super Bowl after resting their starters in the final week. They might get a playoff win here and there, but they do not even go to the Super Bowl, as even the runners-up have played their starters in the final week.

Yet, vile stupidity reigns every year. Rest your starters for the playoffs. Don't get hurt. I heard some serious garbage tonight from sports radio that lauded the decision of Jim Caldwell to rest Peyton Manning today in the 29-15 loss to the Jets that ended their perfect season. He brought up the injury factor, neglecting the fact that the Colts O-line, plus Manning's quick thinking, usually avoids their star QB from getting hit. When this Curtis Painter guy came in and they gave up the sack (and fumble TD), it was the first time in like a billion plays they had allowed a sack.

By the way, if the Titans were still in the playoff hunt, I would have been pissed at the Colts forever for allowing the Jets to play against their B-team. I'm sure there are more than a few teams upset about the Colts' wrong decision today.

With the way the Chargers are playing, the Colts need to be sharp in the playoffs if they want to make it to the Super Bowl again. But, what can I say, conventional wisdom, which is incredibly false, will prevail again.

Titans Fans: Which Games Matter, and Who to Root For

Just to show that this is very possible, and for whom to root for in every game. The only ones I wasn't sure about are the two Pitt games, which you could change up a bit and still see the Titans get in. There are some real upsets here, but this is best case scenario. Not all of these have to happen, but most of them do.

Week 15
SD @ TEN LP Field 7:30 PM TEN
KC @ CIN Paul Brown Stadium 1:00 PM KC
BAL @ PIT Heinz Field 1:00 PM PIT
HOU @ MIA Land Shark Stadium 1:00 PM HOU
JAC @ NE Gillette Stadium 1:00 PM NE
DEN @ PHI Lincoln Financial Field 4:15 PM PHI
NYJ @ IND Lucas Oil Stadium 4:15 PM IND

Week 16
JAC @ CLE Cleveland Browns Stadium 1:00 PM CLE
NE @ HOU Reliant Stadium 1:00 PM NE
PIT @ MIA Land Shark Stadium 1:00 PM MIA
CIN @ NYJ Giants Stadium 1:00 PM CIN
KC @ DEN Invesco Field at Mile High 4:15 PM KC
BAL @ OAK Oakland Coliseum 4:15 PM OAK
TEN @ SEA Qwest Field 4:15 PM TEN


And the result is the Titans are in with no tiebreaker:

NE 11-5
CIN 10-6

TEN 9-7
MIA 8-8 (I think they'd be in)

DEN 8-8
PIT 8-8
BAL 8-8
HOU 8-8
JAC 7-9
NYJ 7-9

AFC Playoff Scenarios... How Can the Titans Get In?

Since I can't find anywhere that's listing the playoff scenarios for the AFC teams, and since there are few things in life I love more than running through them, let's do this thing.

Here are the remaining games that matter, and my best guess on who wins in bold:

Week 15
SD @ TEN LP Field 7:30 PM SD
KC @ CIN Paul Brown Stadium 1:00 PM CIN
BAL @ PIT Heinz Field 1:00 PM PIT
HOU @ MIA Land Shark Stadium 1:00 PM MIA
JAC @ NE Gillette Stadium 1:00 PM NE
DEN @ PHI Lincoln Financial Field 4:15 PM DEN
NYJ @ IND Lucas Oil Stadium 4:15 PM IND

Week 16
JAC @ CLE Cleveland Browns Stadium 1:00 PM JAC
NE @ HOU Reliant Stadium 1:00 PM NE
PIT @ MIA Land Shark Stadium 1:00 PM PIT
CIN @ NYJ Giants Stadium 1:00 PM CIN
KC @ DEN Invesco Field at Mile High 4:15 PM DEN
BAL @ OAK Oakland Coliseum 4:15 PM BAL
TEN @ SEA Qwest Field 4:15 PM TEN


That leaves these record:
NE 11-5
CIN 11-5
DEN 10-6
PIT 9-7 (PIT win head to head tiebreaker over BAL)

BAL 9-7
JAC 8-8
MIA 8-8
TEN 8-8
HOU 7-9
NYJ 7-9

For the Titans to get in, they'd have to win the Chargers game to get to 9-7. A tall order, I think. Then, if the Steelers beat the Ravens next week, and then both teams lose their final game, then the Titans are in. If either of those teams win their last game, but the Broncos lose both of their games, then the Titans are in. All that assumes that the other teams not mentioned don't make a run of their own.

If the Ravens beat the Steelers, then we need Denver to lose twice. And have no one else win nine games. That's the big if in these scenarios; we don't need Dolphins, Jags, or Jets winning out, because that would likely spell doom.

Finally! This Is What It Feels Like!

Watching Kenny Britt jump up and grab that ball yesterday, I suddenly saw the Titans do things that always seem to happen to them.

That 99-yard drive. Holy crap, how many times had this thing been set up for your usual Titans mediocrity, starting with that first 4th down way back in their own territory? Then you see Kenny Britt make sure he made the catch to keep the drive going. In the past, I swear receivers were looking for pass interference penalties rather than just catch the ball.

And weren't you just waiting for someone on the offensive line to get a false start penalty and stall the drive?

For the first time since the Miracle play and the subsequent playoff run to the Super Bowl, I felt genuine excitement for the Titans.

Last week I brought up the teams the Titans are going to have to jump in order to get to the playoffs. This past week was profitable for this team as many of the competition took steps back this weekend. Here's the update:

The Denver Broncos have the first wild card spot by themselves right now, with a 7-4 record. Remaining schedule: KC, Indy, Oakland, Philly, and KC again.

Two teams fell to 6-5 and one joined their ranks. Pittsburgh, Jacksonville, and Baltimore.

Pittsburgh (Oakland, Cleveland, Green Bay, Baltimore, Miami)
Jacksonville (Houston, Miami, Indy, New England, Cleveland)
Baltimore (Green Bay, Detroit, Chicago, Pittsburgh, Oakland)

The 5-6 group got very crowded:

Miami (New England, Jacksonville, Tennessee, Houston, Pittsburgh), by far the toughest remaining schedule

NY Jets (Buffalo, Tampa, Atlanta, Indy, Cincy)...the Jets might actually have a good chance of sneaking in.

Houston (Jacksonville, Seattle, St. Louis, Miami, New England)

Tennessee (Indy, St. Louis, Miami, San Diego, Seattle)

So, 3 teams in this group won yesterday, and 4 lost. Profitable, and it means that the Titans are now 1 game out of the 2nd wild card, barring the tiebreakers, which means they're probably still technically 2 games out. But hope for some upsets and hope for the Titans to keep it going. The chances are still slim, but, as Jim Carrey said to Lauren Holly in Dumb and Dumber after she told him there was a 1 in a million chance that she'd ever go out with him, "So you're saying there's a chance!"

A couple of asides:

The Titans, under Young, drove 99 yards in 2:36. Two weeks ago, Bill Belichick went for it on 4th down with 2:08 left and the prospect of giving Peyton Manning the ball at around his own 30, as if knifing down the field in that amount of time was going to be the most monumental task of his career. More and more, this risk seems justified to me.

There have been a couple of "Fisher could have lost us this game" moments in the last couple of weeks. Last week, that pooch kick which was taken to the 35 after being caught around the 20-25 yard line, giving the Texans more than enough opportunity to get in position to kick a field goal to tie the game. I have never been a fan of the pooch kick for that very reason. It is the special teams equivalent of the prevent defense, where ultra-conservative play allows liberal amounts of yards all in the hope that you don't give up a huge play which is rare in the first place.

Yesterday, it was the play at the end of the 1st half. As much as we've seen Young grow up this season, someone needed to tell him to throw the ball out of the end zone if he didn't have a play so they could have kicked a field goal. It's one of those things, we don't know how the game would have been played after that, there's no guarantee the same plays and actions on the field would have occurred in the 2nd half, but if they had, it would have been nice to allow Bironas to kick a field goal and win it towards the end. Then again, I can't guarantee Bironas would have kicked the field goal...in either instance! Ahhh! Damn, Chris, can't you just be happy with the amazing game-winning touchdown? OK, yes...I guess.

Hard to Believe, but 10-6 Might Be Good Enough

In no way am I suggesting the Titans will run the table the rest of the season and go 10-6, but remember when we thought even 10-6 wouldn't be good enough? Now it seems likely it will be.

After the division leaders, the current Wild Card contenders are:

Pittsburgh, Jacksonville, and the now-lowly Denver, at 6-4.

Miami, Baltimore, and Houston, at 5-5.

Tennessee and the suddenly-can't win Jets are next at 4-6.

So there isn't a team exactly running away with it in the second tier right now, and looking at the remaining schedules for these teams, it's likely 10-6 will get in, and possibly even 9-7.

Things can change, but in this group of teams we have Denver and the Jets just fading completely right now.

Baltimore and Pittsburgh have to play each other twice still. Pittsburgh still has the Packers and Miami on the schedule, too. Baltimore might have the easiest road left of all these teams, but they still have the Packers and they're such a who-knows? team they could easily lose at Oakland at the end of the year.

Houston has Indy, Jacksonville, Miami, and New England left as the tough games.

Anyone trust Jacksonville in this mix? They just barely beat Buffalo last week and now they play San Fran on the road, which will be a tough game, Houston, Miami, and New England for the next 4 games.

Miami has to play New England, Jacksonville, Tennessee, Houston, and Pittsburgh to end the year. Anyone seeing them go 5-1?

Denver: Giants, Colts, Eagles. They have several other interesting games, 2 with KC and 1 with Oakland. Anyone seeing them going even 4-2 on this stretch?

The Jets, who I think are completely insignificant at this point (and yes, they beat the Titans and have the same record...which satisfies me no end after hearing the 3-and-0 chants after that game), still have to play Carolina, Atlanta, Cincy, and Indy.

Again, I'm not even saying the Titans will go 10-6, but that 10-6 will get the playoff berth. The Titans have a pretty rough road ahead as well, with Arizona, Indy, Miami, and San Diego left as the tough games. I mean, being 4-6 is not a good prospect going into that kind of remaining schedule. However, they have 4 out of 6 games remaining at home. The way they are playing, the Seattle and St. Louis games should be locks for at least a 6-win season. Come away with winnable games like Arizona and Miami, maybe get a break against Indy or San Diego, you might have a 9-7 team looking at a decent chance.

Kansas City and Oakland, both 3-7 teams, will have lots to say about the Titans' minuscule chances. They've come up with some impressive wins. If they sneak by some of these teams mentioned above, then this could get really interesting. We could be looking at the rare 8-8 team getting in.

Seriously, after the 0-6 start, who thought the Titans would be 2 games away from the leading Wild Card contenders?

So After All That...

Somehow managed to predict what the AFC Championship would be. Is it just me or is the Steelers' win today exactly what the Titans' would have been had they not turned the ball over 3 times?

All I can say is...Go Steelers! I'm not sure the Eagles or Cardinals will have a chance...but I've said that before.

The Upset Sweep Still In Effect

The 2008 NFL regular season is slowly becoming more moot by the game. The Eagles will play the Cardinals in the NFC Championship. This means both 6 seeds are 1 win away from a Super Bowl trip. If the Chargers win the next game, we're going to have no 1, 2, or 3 seeds left.

Two teams that faltered and looked awful just as recently as Week 16 (The Cardinals lost to New England 47-7 and the Eagles lost to the Redskins 10-3) are in the NFC Championship. This also throws out the "playing well towards the end of the season" argument, at least for this year.

It's probably time for the higher seeds to stop doing this "rest your players" stuff in the last week because it isn't meaningful in any way and looks to be harmful. We've seen too many 5 and 6 seeds advance now. The Colts and Titans both did this with each other in Week 17 and they are both one-and-done.

I still say there is some skewing even in these playoffs. Obviously, the Titans should have won their game yesterday while these other two high seeds just got demolished. Turnovers have been incredibly huge. Is this "rustiness?" I don't like believing in it but how else do we explain this mishandling of the ball in crucial situations? The only team we can't blame for being rusty, or at least as much as the other teams, was the Carolina Panthers, who had to win in Week 17 to preserve their seed and first-round bye. They looked awful against the Cards, though.

Anomaly or trend? The past few years, looks like a trend.

One More Thing

I'm on a roll today. Too many things keep popping up that I feel like I must comment upon.

You can call me a bitter Titans fan all you want, but even if Baltimore had won against another team today, the "Joe Flacco is the first rookie QB to win two playoff games" drivel must go out the door.

He made a couple of nice plays and definitely didn't assist the Titans in any way. He didn't make the rookie mistakes. But come on...he hardly "won" this game. The game I watched and the end result are so incongruous I'm still checking to see if my organs are in the correct place. Damn what a bad loss this was. Bitter.

There's Nothing Real In the World Anymore

The Arizona Cardinals...in the NFC Championship?

Expect the Chargers to beat Pittsburgh tomorrow. I'm still not sure the Eagles help complete an underdog sweep tomorrow, but we're eventually going to have cats and dogs living together...mass hysteria, if this keeps up.

It Doesn't Look Good For the 3, 4 Seeds

Can the NFL Playoff system be any worse? I think it's comparable to the NBA, although the NBA is far worse for allowing losing teams in the playoffs way more than should be normal. While the 11-5 New England Patriots will sit out these playoffs, an 8-8 or 9-7 AFC West team could be awarded the opportunity to possibly luck themselves into the Super Bowl for the mere reason that the NFL, like all sports, feels the need to make divisions based on geographic proximity, and awards teams that win those divisions playoff berths.

While many fans might argue that divisions make for exciting rivalries, it clearly violates the spirit of "best teams vying for the championship." Plus, some of these teams play in divisions that are woefully bad. While this isn't the fault of anyone, this is an inherent flaw in the system. Thus, here's how the playoff picture works out:

The superior 5th-seed Atlanta Falcons will play the very lucky 4th-seed Arizona Cardinals (9-7), who played in a division that included the 49ers (7-9), Seahawks (4-12), and Rams (2-14). The NFC West's winning percentage was .343. Is this some kind of record? Meanwhile, the Falcons come from the NFC South, a division that had a .625 winning percentage. All the teams played .500 or above. Uh, Falcons win this game easy. Start placing your bets.

Then you have the 6th-seed Eagles (9-6-1), who I didn't think was worth a damn all season but they get to play the 3rd-seed Vikings (10-6). The Vikings played in a division with the Lions, who just made history going 0-16. The NFC North went a lowly .390, while the Eagles' NFC East division went .593, and also had all the teams get .500 or better. While the Eagles are no world beaters, they are certainly better than the suspect Vikings.

In the AFC, it's not really better. I think the 3rd-seed Dolphins are a good story, and they won a fairly tough division (.593) this year, but they have to face off against the 6th-seed Ravens, who already beat them this season. The Ravens defense is pretty much back to their very stingy selves, and while they didn't win very many big games (I would say this amounts to about 0 considering their big wins were the Dolphins and Eagles, both only could be considered "big" after the fact) and played in a suspect division (.484), they should be able to beat this team again. This might be the best game of the Wild Card round, but the Ravens win this handily.

And then, you have this awful matchup with either the 5th-seed Colts against the 4th-seed Broncos or Chargers. The AFC South was .593 and the horrible AFC West will go .359 after this game is played. While the Chargers have played the Colts tough in the past two games (including last year's playoff matchup that the Chargers won), I think the Colts have been playing a version of possum all year. Peyton Manning has been playing hurt and they still have been offing fools. And if it's the Broncos, forget it. The Colts own the Broncos.

I don't think there's any doubt what the Divisional Playoffs will look like:

Falcons-Giants
Eagles-Panthers
Ravens-Titans (OH BROTHER!)
Colts-Steelers

And what the hell...why not pick the Championship Games?

I think the Giants will take care of the upstart Falcons, and the Panthers will dispose of the Eagles. It will be a rematch of the Week 16 game that the Giants won, which means the Panthers will find a way to learn from their mistakes and win that game and go to the Super Bowl.

In the AFC, I worry that the Titans and Colts played way too conservatively in Week 17. This seems to be a loser's tactic, although it will affect the Titans more than the Colts, who will luck out on whoever they play, and they get to play immediately next week. The Titans will officially have no real competitive football for two weeks after this meaningless Colts game today, and then they'll have to face a Ravens team that they barely beat earlier in the season (should the Ravens take care of business like I think they will). After that impressive win over the Steelers, the Titans shot themselves in the foot today by playing it safe. Both teams should have come out to play because it seems like the teams that play it safe at the end of the year end up losing in the playoffs.

So unfortunately I think the Ravens beat the Titans and the Steelers beat the Colts, setting up an amazing, intriguing 3rd game between the AFC North foes. It's a toss-up, but I think the Steelers will win that game. The Colts needed a comeback to win in the regular season, but I wouldn't be shocked if they soundly beat the Steelers, either. Anyway, I think Steelers.

So Steelers-Panthers? Eh. Dunno about that. I wouldn't be surprised if the Colts make it, because they've played so strangely all year and won 9 in a row to finish the season.

I obviously hope the Titans make it, and I've been down on them for a long portion of this year, and sometimes they've surprised, but I just don't see it. I think the only way they get close is if the Dolphins beat the Ravens and then the AFC West team upsets the Colts. This would clear out the Titans' tougher matchups down the road. They would play (likely the Chargers as I write this) while the Steelers would get the Dolphins. Then the Steelers and Titans would likely advance, and I think the Titans have a much better chance of beating the Steelers than they do against the Ravens or Colts.

And what if my childhood team the Falcons makes it against the Titans? Wow! I would like to say I can't lose, but I certainly can. I haven't been a Falcons fan for a long time.