Simple College Football Idea

It's been a good year for the bowl games. I enjoyed the great Tennessee - UNC game, and it's only one of many great (or at least interesting) story lines in the bowls. But, like nearly everybody, I hate that we can't be sure of a true national champion. Isn't there a simple way of keeping everything together? The idea I've heard most often is making the playoffs the bowl games, but I don't think that could ever happen.

Here's my idea. Take a close look at the schedule. There is nothing going on on the 11th and 18th of December for this year except the Army-Navy game, and three lesser bowl games. Couldn't we have the quarterfinals and semifinals of an eight team playoff in those weeks? Have the championship be the last game like we have it now? And then have the bowls run as usual? No playoff is going to affect the early bowls, such as the New Mexico Bowl, because those teams won't be in the top eight. And the six losing teams would just slot into the other early January bowl games.

The one complaint would be the playing of a couple of extra games, and right near exams. Of course, nobody cares about this in I-AA, Div. II, or Div. III football, so that's just something the bowls say to protect their position. That isn't a problem here, I think, because the bowls remain intact. On the plus side, the networks love it, and we get Saturday football in December again since the NFL has largely abandoned it.

Just for fun, this is how the Dec. 11 games would have gone this year (this leaves out Arkansas and Ohio State of the ten BCS teams):

1. Auburn hosts 8. Connecticut
2. Oregon hosts 7. Virginia Tech
3. TCU hosts 6. Oklahoma
4. Stanford hosts 5. Wisconsin

I'd be in. Would you not be? What would you not like?

The NFL Playoffs are Full of Randomness

There are "scripts" we've all seen before in sports, where we get to expect certain outcomes to happen. These ideas can come about fairly quickly, or can slowly form for decades. In the NFL, we see patterns emerge, and we expect them to continue... but this year they haven't. The Cowboys were not bad in December, actually winning a few games and making the playoffs. The Jets made it into the playoffs with luck actually treating their fans decently for once. Heck, the Saints won their first ten games or so, reversing a trend that goes back decades, even though it's not quite so surprising anymore. I think that more than once in the playoffs, we're going to have our minds blown by a result that we didn't see coming.

Along those line, I'm starting to think that, now that we all believe it's a bad idea to rest starters in the final few weeks, suddenly that doesn't mean anything. Think of quantum physics, that by observing a particle it changes the particle. Now that we've observed the phenomenon, it will no longer exist. As Chris pointed out, seven teams rested there starters, and we can't ignore them all. The "football gods" no longer care about this.

Stick with me for a second with a soccer comparison? Nations come to have a certain identity on the pitch, and in the World Cup and other such competitions, you start to have a general idea of what's going to happen. Everybody, including myself, felt that Germany would beat Spain in the finals of the Euro 2008 tournament. As they say, "football" is a game that's played for 90 minutes, and then the Germans win on penalties. This held true for decades, basically since Germany reemerged in the 50's. And Spain always underachieves, always, in every major tournament, again going back decades. Almost no one predicted Spain to win, based on historical precedent alone. So what happened in the final? Spain won, and convincingly. It felt, and still feels, that a new era is upon us, one in which I expect the scripts to be flipped... but I expect as soon as we figure out the new script, it will change.

Before the season ended, I assumed the Vikings and Saints would lose quickly, because they always do. I thought the hot team would continue to win, and the teams that rested their starters would struggle. But now that I'm thinking some of the scripts will change, I'm rethinking that, and beginning to believe that about anything could happen. The Saints could suddenly turn it around, the Eagles could catch fire, anything could happen, much like the Cards last year. We could even be headed for one weird Super Bowl. Let's just hope that that doesn't mean a Cardinals-Ravens Super Bowl, but I wouldn't be shocked.

As far as official picks go, I just don't know, there's way too much in the air this year. I do feel a Colts/Pats rematch could be in the cards, and I feel strongly that we'll be looking at a Vikings/Packers rematch as well. THAT would be a great championship Sunday, don't you think? But it's too much of a crapshoot, and I don't trust any team.

Except for one. For the Super Bowl, I think Manning will want to prove this whole not playing at the end of the season stuff isn't going to keep them from the title, and he has the mindset to do it. We all think they are one of the best three or four teams in the league, but I think they are the most mentally strong, starting with the QB, the real leader of this team. That'll put them over the top to win it all. If I have to choose an NFC team I'll choose the Pack, but I think that conference is wide open.

Or maybe I'm totally full of crap. Their lifeless coach could bomb them. We'll see.

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One more thing, off subject: all Week 17 games need to be played at the same time, say 2:00 Eastern Time. I know this would cost the NFL a few bucks, but it would decrease the number of games where a team simply roles over, like the Bengals did. The World Cup does this in the final game of each group so that games like this don't happen again, with a scoreline agreed upon before the game.

AFC Playoff Scenarios... How Can the Titans Get In?

Since I can't find anywhere that's listing the playoff scenarios for the AFC teams, and since there are few things in life I love more than running through them, let's do this thing.

Here are the remaining games that matter, and my best guess on who wins in bold:

Week 15
SD @ TEN LP Field 7:30 PM SD
KC @ CIN Paul Brown Stadium 1:00 PM CIN
BAL @ PIT Heinz Field 1:00 PM PIT
HOU @ MIA Land Shark Stadium 1:00 PM MIA
JAC @ NE Gillette Stadium 1:00 PM NE
DEN @ PHI Lincoln Financial Field 4:15 PM DEN
NYJ @ IND Lucas Oil Stadium 4:15 PM IND

Week 16
JAC @ CLE Cleveland Browns Stadium 1:00 PM JAC
NE @ HOU Reliant Stadium 1:00 PM NE
PIT @ MIA Land Shark Stadium 1:00 PM PIT
CIN @ NYJ Giants Stadium 1:00 PM CIN
KC @ DEN Invesco Field at Mile High 4:15 PM DEN
BAL @ OAK Oakland Coliseum 4:15 PM BAL
TEN @ SEA Qwest Field 4:15 PM TEN


That leaves these record:
NE 11-5
CIN 11-5
DEN 10-6
PIT 9-7 (PIT win head to head tiebreaker over BAL)

BAL 9-7
JAC 8-8
MIA 8-8
TEN 8-8
HOU 7-9
NYJ 7-9

For the Titans to get in, they'd have to win the Chargers game to get to 9-7. A tall order, I think. Then, if the Steelers beat the Ravens next week, and then both teams lose their final game, then the Titans are in. If either of those teams win their last game, but the Broncos lose both of their games, then the Titans are in. All that assumes that the other teams not mentioned don't make a run of their own.

If the Ravens beat the Steelers, then we need Denver to lose twice. And have no one else win nine games. That's the big if in these scenarios; we don't need Dolphins, Jags, or Jets winning out, because that would likely spell doom.

Belichick's Call

I'm going to put my opinion in the comments, but here's a great analysis by the cold numbers. Run your own numbers here.

The Decline of Sports

Sports aren't going anywhere, it's just that they're not immune to the pressures that every business faces, although generally facing them well off the front pages. Money drives everything, and the game is often played on the outskirts of legality to make more of it. The NBA tries to exploit their refs in quasi-legal ways to maximise profits, and it surprises no one.

The NBA has approached this in the dumbest way possible, the one that everybody can see. And MLB isn't much better by allowing steroids for so long. Issues that all can see will eventually be found out. Best to let players take uppers or something to increase their energy (no, I'm not endorsing that). The NFL is okay for now because steroid bodies can be hidden by the uniforms, but if it weren't for that we'd have the same issues we have elsewhere.

As an aside, I continue to believe that the much maligned Tour de France is the cleanest pro sport in the world because they take drug use seriously and don't just sweep away their issues. Good for them.

But no, the end of sports will never come, as there will always be people like me suiting up to play in adult leagues every weekend. Professional sports are in trouble, real trouble, and they need to face up to this, but something will be around. In what form?

Even if one of the major sports leagues fail, another league will take its place because there is too much money to be made. But, is there a chance that some element of professional "wrestling" will come into sports? Has that already happened in the NBA? I believe it has. I hate to say it, but everything in the book I linked to rang true. We've entered an age of sports as entertainment, and not fully sports.

Bored...

I miss the old New Year's Day format. There were a ton of games, and at least one of them would be good at any given hour. There wouldn't be time for any hockey game, great idea as playing at Wrigley is. Right now the Rose Bowl is a bore, and there's nothing else to watch! It's New Year's Day, and I'm thinking about leaving the house to buy some stuff. That would have been sacrilege once! But no more.

You know the best way for a guy to get over some emotional problems? To have it blasted all over the national news! These type of stories should never get anywhere.

SB XLII

I've got a bad feeling about this one. Watched the game with George yesterday, and I'm not thinking this is gonna be pretty. The New York media will talk themselves into it, but, man, it could get real ugly real quick. Watching the first game, even with a lifeless Pats team that seemed to be going through the motions, they still found a way to stop the Chargers every time in the red zone. They HAD to score a TD to win that game, they knew they had to, and they couldn't.

The second game seemed like just mistake after mistake, with the least worst team winning. How can that Giants team I watched yesterday put it together, especially with a Pats team that I fele will be motivated again, with two weeks of game planning and rest behind them? I feel a late 80's SB thrashing coming on again, and a sorry way to end our football for the year. Oh well.

How an NCAA Playoff System Could Work

Alright, here's my proposal. I think you take the top four teams in the BCS and give them home games. Take the next three teams and put them on the road, and throw in the top mid-major as a reward for the little guy (and a nice opening game for the top seed as well). Here would be your seeds this year:

(8)Hawaii at (1)Ohio State
(7)USC at (2)LSU
(6)Missouri at (3)Virginia Tech
(5)Georgia at (4)Oklahoma

What's not to like? You play the next rounds seeded just like March Madness, and they can be at a bowl site if you like, and would be heavily attended. Play the quarterfinals on weeknights, the semi-finals the next week, and the final at the top BCS bowl. Really, would this be so bad?

I know there are several reasons for avoiding this playoff that the teams give, but none of them seem to hold water for me; they're just excuses to avoid change. I can't help but think that this would be a great money maker. And it would keep Ohio State out of the finals, as they'd be trounced by somebody in the semis!

AFC Playoff Thoughts

-Pretty straight forward first half, with the Jags simply being a better team. And Roth-whatever not having great decision making at all.

-The pictures of Pittsburgh in HD were so great, I wanted them to just keep it there. Fantastic pictures at night, certainly looked better than that field, even if it was having a "good night".

-The Steelers had no answer for the rushing game, and did you hear the boos. Was anyone else as disturbed as I was at all the booing the fans did? I thought the Steelers fans would get behind their team, but I guess they played just that badly.

-Maybe the Jags hype is for real, huh? The Steelers looked pretty good in the second half, but they weren't the best team today.

-I was thinking the same thing as Al Michaels, that the Steelers should have kicked the extra point in their next-to-last touchdown. They were backed up to the 12 and should have kicked it though. We'd be playing overtime now.

Some NFC Playoff Thoughts

-I forget how good the Seattle crowds are for the NFL, and I guess for other sports. Do you ever really think of Seattle as a great sports town? But they delivered today, even if the team didn't. I think so much of it has to do with that stadium, which I think is fantastic, not only in appearance, but in keeping the crowd noise in.

-Why don't we study that more, how much a stadium affects a crowd? How many teams have you heard of that lost a large part of their character when they changed venues?

-Before the game I thought that there was no way Todd Collins was going to lead this team to victory. Then, it was the rest of the offense that let them down for most of the game, with several drops and no pocket protection. This really wasn't his fault.

-DVR is fantastic. I started the NFC game an hour and a half late and almost finished at the same time the game is, and early enough to pick up the AFC game live. No commercials!

-Man, did Seattle try to throw that game away or what? And then the Redskins threw it right back to them. I hate when a game is decided by bad plays. At times it seemed neither team was ready to step up and win the game. I think it points to how weak the NFC is. If the Redskins were in the AFC South, they would have won six games.

-After Santana Moss gave up on that ball that was returned for a touchdown, I wouldn't have played him in another play. Why do we put up with this from WRs? And that pretty much ended the game.

In Praise

Well, it's the fashion of the day to tear men down, especially those who are very high, but I'm not here to do this. I'm hear to praise the immaculately-coiffured one himself, David Beckham. He lost his place in the England line-up last year, and was benched at his club team, Real Madrid. Now, approaching the summer break, he's starting every game for the royal club of Madrid, being a massive reason why they are in first place with just two games left in the league, and has, as of yesterday, earned his place back on the English side. And it's been through guts and determination, and a bloody-minded desire to make every free kick as perfect as possible.

This is what he did yesterday, against Brazil, in London, at the new Wembley, the new spiritual home of football:



You just can't kick a ball any more true than that. Many are clamouring to make him Sir David, and I can't say I disagree. Queen, make it be!