Ending the Prediction Game

Predictions are fun...until you correctly pick 3 out of 10 for the entire playoffs.

And so, the Super Bowl is exactly as it was envisioned from about Week 8 in the season, the two teams that were going for an undefeated season for awhile, the two teams that looked unstoppable and then suddenly looked stoppable and then proved unstoppable.

Colts/Saints should be a fantastic Super Bowl. If there is one thing about being wrong that feels so right, it's getting a matchup like this.

The thing about the prediction game during these playoffs is seeing a team you believe in completely self-destruct. Nowhere was this more apparent than in the Vikings/Saints game tonight, where the Vikings were so clearly better than their competition on this given night that you swear they should have won the game by about 21 points.

Brett Favre, as I have seen time and again, can amaze me with his ability and in one fell swoop make me think he's the worst quarterback I've ever seen. That interception before overtime...I sat there and said, "Oh, well, looks like he's going to run the ball and get a good amount of yards and Longwell will get the field goal try and oh look he's throwing across his body across the field and...yeah, you just pissed the game away." Keep in mind, even if that pass was incomplete, that would have been a massive failure. There was no real reward for the risk he was taking, and it befuddles me how time and again we've seen Favre do this. It's why I never got completely on board the "Favre is God" bandwagon. Tough guy, amazing ability...where is this guy's head?

I was going to reiterate, even if the Jets had won today, that the Colts probably played their starters in Week 17 more than what could have been truly classified as "resting" to the full extent of the phenomenon. But now that the Saints are in, it doesn't really matter. No matter how you slice it, a team that rested its starters is in the Super Bowl for the first time in ages.

And for my Super Bowl prediction...I pick the team that a Manning has ever played for.

Conference Championship Games

As many of you know, I am essentially bound by this working theory (re: resting the starters in Week 17 and Super Bowl success) to pick the Vikings and the Jets this Sunday. There might not be a more difficult challenge to this theory than these games.

One thing that is nearly impossible to find out in this whole thing is how many teams made the Super Bowl by playing their starters for a half in that final game. You can look at stats and figure out whether they played or not and whether they made many plays, but you can't tell what the overall situation was. It might actually be wrong to say the Colts rested their starters enough to qualify for this phenomenon, because many of the guys were in that final game trying to achieve individual records (Manning went 14-18 for 95 yards in that final game against the Bills). There have been teams that played their starters for a half or less and went to the Super Bowl, but not many.

In the past, with bye weeks, the Colts played their starters very briefly before pulling them, then usually lost in the playoffs. This year, they played a little bit more than usual.

This upcoming game with the Jets is loaded with all sorts of tidbits. We start with the fact that the Colts paved the way for the Jets to make the playoffs in Week 16 by pulling the starters in the third quarter, leading to a 29-15 loss. The prevailing sentiment about that game, as close as it was, is that Manning had solved the Jets' blitz and was ready to just go on a rampage against their defense. I again call the "there is no way to look at an alternate universe" rule for this. We just don't know what would have happened. It's as if most analysts don't believe in teams making adjustments, as if the Jets would have simply played the exact same game that they were playing and would have been helpless against Manning. We just don't know.

Some people could say, "Well the Jets will feel disrespected that the Colts laid down for them and they don't deserve to be here," and the Jets will therefore get "mad" and show the Colts but good. I certainly don't believe in that. It's just as easy to say the Colts allowed a team in the playoffs that very well took care of a long-time nemesis (the Chargers) for them and now they'll have a much easier road to the Super Bowl because of it.

If the Jets are going to win, they have to stay away from penalties. The Colts, already a relentless offensive team that nickels and dimes teams to death with lots of "We've got 'em 3rd and 4 boys!" only to see the Colts complete an easy slant route right at the 1st down marker, don't need any help. They played a lot of close games that if their opponents had just cut down on mistakes, had a good chance to turn the game. Even last week's Ravens game, where the Colts won handily 20-3, was one play from being interesting, and that play was Ed Reed's interception that turned into a fumble recovery for the Colts. You ever see a guy holding the ball, thinking there's no way he's keeping it if he gets hit? I thought that way not only about Reed but later, Ray Rice. You sit there and go, "Oh no...this guy's losing the ball," and then to no surprise, he does. Hate to say something cliche, but the Jets have to stay away from turnovers, too.

The Jets will be playing an even worse run defense than the Chargers this weekend, which favors them greatly. The emergence of Shonn Greene cannot be underplayed. The Jets are also a better defense than the Ravens. The Jets have to stop the Colts from getting those easy passes, limit touchdowns, run the ball, not get penalized or turn the ball over to win this game. It's a tall task. The other thing they'll need to do: not allow Peyton Manning to have the ball with two minutes left in either half. The Colts will try to score in those minutes and have a great success rate. Think again how different that Ravens game would have been if they hadn't given the Colts such an easy 7 points at the end of the 1st half by dropping passes and not running the clock down in that last possession. The Ravens cut out about three easy-to-fix mistakes and that game is going down to the wire.

I think the Jets will cut out those mistakes and will win this game Sunday. If not, it'll be one of those 34-14 games.

As for the Vikings and Saints, I think we're still not entirely certain what team we're getting with the Saints this weekend. The Saints got a favorable Divisional matchup against an Arizona defense that couldn't stop anything (gave up 90 points in two playoff games, which is a record), lost Kurt Warner and most of the starting secondary. Meanwhile, the Vikings beat a team that by all measures was playing the best heading into the playoffs and looked primed for a Super Bowl run. They just killed them.

I think the Vikings play much better than the Cardinals, which is not a stretch by any means, will score more points, and will make this a closer game. If it's in any way close, I like my chances with Favre should the Vikings need to score in the closing minutes. This matchup is so good on paper. Too bad it'll probably end up being 47-28 by the time it's over.

So there's my reasoning. Looking forward to it.

But I Will Still Take Credit...

Hey, I went 1-4 in picks this weekend, but the one was special: Jets over Chargers. Awesome.

Still a chance that the Super Bowl will have two teams that played their starters in Week 17...Vikings and Favre versus his "old" team the Jets, completing the Favre trifecta for the year. Holy crap.

Almost every potential Super Bowl matchup has intrigue: we could have Favre versus Manning, Saints/Colts and all of that backstory...the only real bad one would be Saints/Jets, the only intrigue there being...a rematch of Week 4.

Depeche Mode Responds to My Predictions

Click here to listen to Depeche Mode's analysis concerning my predictions of this Saturday's games.

I mentioned it before, the "resting the starters" theory would be put to the test this year because of the weak AFC. There is a reason why the Ravens were 9-7 this year, and they showed why in this game tonight against the Colts: bad penalties, dropped passes, and incredibly poor clock management.

I get the sense that most games are within a play or two of being completely different from the final result, and the Ravens truly botched making this game a lot closer than it was. I texted Kennelworthy during this game, discussing how even more pissed off I am at this team for this performance in light of their playoff games against the Titans in the past.

The AFC now has only one team that can keep this theory going: the Jets.

The Saints/Cardinals game is a wash on the "resting the starters" discussion. Both teams were guilty of it. However, it didn't look like it hurt the Saints that much. Of course, the Cardinals were short-handed on both sides of the ball for much of the game. Not that it looked like it would have mattered.

Oh, and one more thing: Dan Dierdorf pulled off one of those great announcer comments that, without any possible way of seeing an alternate universe, took the results of tonight's game as irrefutable proof that "...the Colts rested their starters, and it worked." Since we will never know what would have happened had they played their starters, this comment is officially null and void. And with the history of the Colts and this issue, they took a big gamble. I really don't care what happened tonight.

It'll be funny if, after all that, we still get the matchups that the regular season promised: Vikings/Saints, Colts/Chargers...it's what everyone wanted, we may well get it.

Picking Them This Weekend

Well, I went 2-2 with my picks this weekend. Could have gone 3-1 with that Packers/Cardinals game (sorry Doc...that was a horrible way to lose. I imagined the worst at your household when I saw that last play).

What we know about the "resting the starters in week 17" deal is that it is far worse for bye week teams to do it because they essentially have two weeks off. So, it was not surprising to see the Cardinals pull that game off this weekend. Still, I was rooting for their demise because it would have worked well with the theory. No matter the result, though, no one game proves anything.

What we do know now is that the Cardinals, with a playoff win under their belt, probably sidestep a good portion of what "resting the starters" means for most teams. After this game, the Cards have officially played their starters, and now they play a Saints team that took two weeks off. I pick the Cardinals to absolutely roll in this weekend's Divisional. If that holds true, I think they lose to whoever comes out of the other Divisional, because:

Both the Vikings and Cowboys played their starters in the final week, so I must stick with my guns on this no matter who comes out of the Saints/Cardinals game. That said, I pick the Cowboys to win their matchup with the Vikings. The Cowboys have a more complete team than the Vikings, and are playing extremely well right now. They probably feel they can beat just about anybody after handing the Saints their first loss, and it should continue here.

In the AFC, we have a really difficult set of games here. No doubt both the Colts and the Chargers will be highly favored in their games this weekend, because the lowly 5 & 6 seeds lucky to be here made it past the Wild Card weekend.

I'm saying it right now: the Ravens will beat the Colts. This is a rematch of a week 11 game that the Colts were lucky to win, and at the time the Colts were actually playing, and not quitting games like at the end of the season. Plus, it looks like the Ravens decided to back off on the penalties or things that could lead to penalties this weekend against a Patriots team that historically gets lots of calls. That led to the Ravens' demise in many close games this year, and I think they're a much better team than a 6th seed would lead most to believe.

The Ravens defense is not as scary as in years past, but they are still the 3rd-ranked defense in the league, and if they cut down their mistakes, this should be a game they win by 7-10 points.

Now we come to the Jets/Chargers. The Chargers will be the biggest favorite this weekend, bar none. I would like everyone to consider this, though: the Jets have the number one ranked defense in the league, allow the least points and touchdowns, and have been playing for their lives for the past three weeks. Yeah, teams laid down for them, but they kept that Colts game close while the Colts were still playing for real, and the Bengals would have gotten beat anyway.

Meanwhile, the Chargers went through the final games of the season playing the Titans in what amounted to a scrimmage (the Chargers' backups ended up in that game), then playing the starters very little in that final game against the Redskins, and now have had a bye week.

I'm saying that these two teams are a lot closer than you think they are. According to Pro-Football-Reference.com, in fact, the Jets expected win-loss differential is roughly 11-5, while the Chargers also are closer to an 11-5 team. You have to think about what the Jets had to go through with a rookie QB and they had some rough patches, and we saw the emergence of Shonn Greene in the last game as their top RB. Their offense just put up 24 points on a better defense, the Bengals. Plus, you have a team that didn't expect to be here and are coming off a solid win.

I'm saying it, and may be the only one outside of New York with the balls to say it: The Jets are going to beat the San Diego Chargers. If you believe also a team can be "overconfident" or if you get into the Bill Simmons' wacky set of reasons like "nobody believed in us," then you must believe that a team like the Jets can sneak up on the Chargers.

If my predictions are true, you would have Jets-Ravens in the AFC Championship, and lots of people snoring and CBS executives jumping off a bridge. At least they'd get a New York team, I guess.

You know, if I'm completely wrong, I'm still having fun looking at these playoffs in a different way. If I end up right about all this, all the better.

The NFL Playoffs are Full of Randomness

There are "scripts" we've all seen before in sports, where we get to expect certain outcomes to happen. These ideas can come about fairly quickly, or can slowly form for decades. In the NFL, we see patterns emerge, and we expect them to continue... but this year they haven't. The Cowboys were not bad in December, actually winning a few games and making the playoffs. The Jets made it into the playoffs with luck actually treating their fans decently for once. Heck, the Saints won their first ten games or so, reversing a trend that goes back decades, even though it's not quite so surprising anymore. I think that more than once in the playoffs, we're going to have our minds blown by a result that we didn't see coming.

Along those line, I'm starting to think that, now that we all believe it's a bad idea to rest starters in the final few weeks, suddenly that doesn't mean anything. Think of quantum physics, that by observing a particle it changes the particle. Now that we've observed the phenomenon, it will no longer exist. As Chris pointed out, seven teams rested there starters, and we can't ignore them all. The "football gods" no longer care about this.

Stick with me for a second with a soccer comparison? Nations come to have a certain identity on the pitch, and in the World Cup and other such competitions, you start to have a general idea of what's going to happen. Everybody, including myself, felt that Germany would beat Spain in the finals of the Euro 2008 tournament. As they say, "football" is a game that's played for 90 minutes, and then the Germans win on penalties. This held true for decades, basically since Germany reemerged in the 50's. And Spain always underachieves, always, in every major tournament, again going back decades. Almost no one predicted Spain to win, based on historical precedent alone. So what happened in the final? Spain won, and convincingly. It felt, and still feels, that a new era is upon us, one in which I expect the scripts to be flipped... but I expect as soon as we figure out the new script, it will change.

Before the season ended, I assumed the Vikings and Saints would lose quickly, because they always do. I thought the hot team would continue to win, and the teams that rested their starters would struggle. But now that I'm thinking some of the scripts will change, I'm rethinking that, and beginning to believe that about anything could happen. The Saints could suddenly turn it around, the Eagles could catch fire, anything could happen, much like the Cards last year. We could even be headed for one weird Super Bowl. Let's just hope that that doesn't mean a Cardinals-Ravens Super Bowl, but I wouldn't be shocked.

As far as official picks go, I just don't know, there's way too much in the air this year. I do feel a Colts/Pats rematch could be in the cards, and I feel strongly that we'll be looking at a Vikings/Packers rematch as well. THAT would be a great championship Sunday, don't you think? But it's too much of a crapshoot, and I don't trust any team.

Except for one. For the Super Bowl, I think Manning will want to prove this whole not playing at the end of the season stuff isn't going to keep them from the title, and he has the mindset to do it. We all think they are one of the best three or four teams in the league, but I think they are the most mentally strong, starting with the QB, the real leader of this team. That'll put them over the top to win it all. If I have to choose an NFC team I'll choose the Pack, but I think that conference is wide open.

Or maybe I'm totally full of crap. Their lifeless coach could bomb them. We'll see.

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One more thing, off subject: all Week 17 games need to be played at the same time, say 2:00 Eastern Time. I know this would cost the NFL a few bucks, but it would decrease the number of games where a team simply roles over, like the Bengals did. The World Cup does this in the final game of each group so that games like this don't happen again, with a scoreline agreed upon before the game.

Teams That Won't Make the Super Bowl This Year

So, knowing what we know now about resting your starters versus playing them, and how there is an unbelievable, un-spotted record concerning this statistic, we can point out the teams that won't likely be attending the Super Bowl this year. These teams either played their starters very little or not at all.

Indianapolis Colts, repeating a sad tradition.

New Orleans Saints, already fading as it is, may very well have an early exit.

Those two teams played their starters the least, and in the Colts' case, they did it for two weeks, and now a bye week. These teams will be going in cold. They may very well lose their first playoff game. Even if they make it past their first game, they will lose the Championship game against whomever they play.

I also have concerns about, yes, the San Diego Chargers. Playing hot, they pulled the starters pretty early and now they have a bye week. History is not good for these teams, even like the Chargers. They may get a break with how weak the AFC is this year, but I would not be surprised if they got beat. It's just the way this final game, playing your starters or not, works, especially for a team getting a bye week and essentially will be off for 2 weeks.

Also, the Cincinnati Bengals aren't exactly high on the list, either. That was a woeful performance against the Jets, who I think have a chance to sneak up on some teams and I pick to beat these same Bengals in the playoffs this upcoming weekend.

The Arizona Cardinals will also likely lose to their Week 17 opponent, the Packers, after resting their starters. It's not as bad when you don't also have a bye week, but they aren't going to the Super Bowl regardless.

These teams played their starters for the most part or all of the game:

Vikings, Cowboys, Eagles, Packers, Patriots, Ravens, Jets.

If history repeats itself, it will be two of these teams in the Super Bowl. Weird, huh? Can you imagine any of those AFC teams being the representative? That's why the Chargers might be the first team in at least a decade (I haven't done the research that far) to make the Super Bowl after significantly resting their starters. Still, don't be shocked if they lose.

The Patriots lost Wes Welker, by the way, by doing the right thing. I see that and I still think you need to play your starters. There are two things that are troublesome for the facts at hand:

1. You can injure your starters by playing them in the last game. Of course, it's completely OK if you injure your starters for the season in the first game of the year. No one second-guesses you then.

2. There is still a chance a team that rests their starters makes it to the Super Bowl, especially if you have a conference as weak as the AFC is this year.

I still believe in what the facts tell me, though. Even if there is an anomaly this year, the evidence is overwhelming on what you should do.

Picks for Wild Card games this weekend:

Patriots over Ravens
Jets over Bengals
Cowboys over Eagles
Packers over Cardinals

If true, this would set up these match-ups:

Patriots at Chargers
Jets at Colts
Cowboys at Vikings
Packers at Saints

I'm not going to venture any further, considering I could be completely wrong about my Wild Card picks, but those are some very interesting match-ups for the Divisional games.

Titans Fans: Which Games Matter, and Who to Root For

Just to show that this is very possible, and for whom to root for in every game. The only ones I wasn't sure about are the two Pitt games, which you could change up a bit and still see the Titans get in. There are some real upsets here, but this is best case scenario. Not all of these have to happen, but most of them do.

Week 15
SD @ TEN LP Field 7:30 PM TEN
KC @ CIN Paul Brown Stadium 1:00 PM KC
BAL @ PIT Heinz Field 1:00 PM PIT
HOU @ MIA Land Shark Stadium 1:00 PM HOU
JAC @ NE Gillette Stadium 1:00 PM NE
DEN @ PHI Lincoln Financial Field 4:15 PM PHI
NYJ @ IND Lucas Oil Stadium 4:15 PM IND

Week 16
JAC @ CLE Cleveland Browns Stadium 1:00 PM CLE
NE @ HOU Reliant Stadium 1:00 PM NE
PIT @ MIA Land Shark Stadium 1:00 PM MIA
CIN @ NYJ Giants Stadium 1:00 PM CIN
KC @ DEN Invesco Field at Mile High 4:15 PM KC
BAL @ OAK Oakland Coliseum 4:15 PM OAK
TEN @ SEA Qwest Field 4:15 PM TEN


And the result is the Titans are in with no tiebreaker:

NE 11-5
CIN 10-6

TEN 9-7
MIA 8-8 (I think they'd be in)

DEN 8-8
PIT 8-8
BAL 8-8
HOU 8-8
JAC 7-9
NYJ 7-9

AFC Playoff Scenarios... How Can the Titans Get In?

Since I can't find anywhere that's listing the playoff scenarios for the AFC teams, and since there are few things in life I love more than running through them, let's do this thing.

Here are the remaining games that matter, and my best guess on who wins in bold:

Week 15
SD @ TEN LP Field 7:30 PM SD
KC @ CIN Paul Brown Stadium 1:00 PM CIN
BAL @ PIT Heinz Field 1:00 PM PIT
HOU @ MIA Land Shark Stadium 1:00 PM MIA
JAC @ NE Gillette Stadium 1:00 PM NE
DEN @ PHI Lincoln Financial Field 4:15 PM DEN
NYJ @ IND Lucas Oil Stadium 4:15 PM IND

Week 16
JAC @ CLE Cleveland Browns Stadium 1:00 PM JAC
NE @ HOU Reliant Stadium 1:00 PM NE
PIT @ MIA Land Shark Stadium 1:00 PM PIT
CIN @ NYJ Giants Stadium 1:00 PM CIN
KC @ DEN Invesco Field at Mile High 4:15 PM DEN
BAL @ OAK Oakland Coliseum 4:15 PM BAL
TEN @ SEA Qwest Field 4:15 PM TEN


That leaves these record:
NE 11-5
CIN 11-5
DEN 10-6
PIT 9-7 (PIT win head to head tiebreaker over BAL)

BAL 9-7
JAC 8-8
MIA 8-8
TEN 8-8
HOU 7-9
NYJ 7-9

For the Titans to get in, they'd have to win the Chargers game to get to 9-7. A tall order, I think. Then, if the Steelers beat the Ravens next week, and then both teams lose their final game, then the Titans are in. If either of those teams win their last game, but the Broncos lose both of their games, then the Titans are in. All that assumes that the other teams not mentioned don't make a run of their own.

If the Ravens beat the Steelers, then we need Denver to lose twice. And have no one else win nine games. That's the big if in these scenarios; we don't need Dolphins, Jags, or Jets winning out, because that would likely spell doom.

Finally! This Is What It Feels Like!

Watching Kenny Britt jump up and grab that ball yesterday, I suddenly saw the Titans do things that always seem to happen to them.

That 99-yard drive. Holy crap, how many times had this thing been set up for your usual Titans mediocrity, starting with that first 4th down way back in their own territory? Then you see Kenny Britt make sure he made the catch to keep the drive going. In the past, I swear receivers were looking for pass interference penalties rather than just catch the ball.

And weren't you just waiting for someone on the offensive line to get a false start penalty and stall the drive?

For the first time since the Miracle play and the subsequent playoff run to the Super Bowl, I felt genuine excitement for the Titans.

Last week I brought up the teams the Titans are going to have to jump in order to get to the playoffs. This past week was profitable for this team as many of the competition took steps back this weekend. Here's the update:

The Denver Broncos have the first wild card spot by themselves right now, with a 7-4 record. Remaining schedule: KC, Indy, Oakland, Philly, and KC again.

Two teams fell to 6-5 and one joined their ranks. Pittsburgh, Jacksonville, and Baltimore.

Pittsburgh (Oakland, Cleveland, Green Bay, Baltimore, Miami)
Jacksonville (Houston, Miami, Indy, New England, Cleveland)
Baltimore (Green Bay, Detroit, Chicago, Pittsburgh, Oakland)

The 5-6 group got very crowded:

Miami (New England, Jacksonville, Tennessee, Houston, Pittsburgh), by far the toughest remaining schedule

NY Jets (Buffalo, Tampa, Atlanta, Indy, Cincy)...the Jets might actually have a good chance of sneaking in.

Houston (Jacksonville, Seattle, St. Louis, Miami, New England)

Tennessee (Indy, St. Louis, Miami, San Diego, Seattle)

So, 3 teams in this group won yesterday, and 4 lost. Profitable, and it means that the Titans are now 1 game out of the 2nd wild card, barring the tiebreakers, which means they're probably still technically 2 games out. But hope for some upsets and hope for the Titans to keep it going. The chances are still slim, but, as Jim Carrey said to Lauren Holly in Dumb and Dumber after she told him there was a 1 in a million chance that she'd ever go out with him, "So you're saying there's a chance!"

A couple of asides:

The Titans, under Young, drove 99 yards in 2:36. Two weeks ago, Bill Belichick went for it on 4th down with 2:08 left and the prospect of giving Peyton Manning the ball at around his own 30, as if knifing down the field in that amount of time was going to be the most monumental task of his career. More and more, this risk seems justified to me.

There have been a couple of "Fisher could have lost us this game" moments in the last couple of weeks. Last week, that pooch kick which was taken to the 35 after being caught around the 20-25 yard line, giving the Texans more than enough opportunity to get in position to kick a field goal to tie the game. I have never been a fan of the pooch kick for that very reason. It is the special teams equivalent of the prevent defense, where ultra-conservative play allows liberal amounts of yards all in the hope that you don't give up a huge play which is rare in the first place.

Yesterday, it was the play at the end of the 1st half. As much as we've seen Young grow up this season, someone needed to tell him to throw the ball out of the end zone if he didn't have a play so they could have kicked a field goal. It's one of those things, we don't know how the game would have been played after that, there's no guarantee the same plays and actions on the field would have occurred in the 2nd half, but if they had, it would have been nice to allow Bironas to kick a field goal and win it towards the end. Then again, I can't guarantee Bironas would have kicked the field goal...in either instance! Ahhh! Damn, Chris, can't you just be happy with the amazing game-winning touchdown? OK, yes...I guess.

Hard to Believe, but 10-6 Might Be Good Enough

In no way am I suggesting the Titans will run the table the rest of the season and go 10-6, but remember when we thought even 10-6 wouldn't be good enough? Now it seems likely it will be.

After the division leaders, the current Wild Card contenders are:

Pittsburgh, Jacksonville, and the now-lowly Denver, at 6-4.

Miami, Baltimore, and Houston, at 5-5.

Tennessee and the suddenly-can't win Jets are next at 4-6.

So there isn't a team exactly running away with it in the second tier right now, and looking at the remaining schedules for these teams, it's likely 10-6 will get in, and possibly even 9-7.

Things can change, but in this group of teams we have Denver and the Jets just fading completely right now.

Baltimore and Pittsburgh have to play each other twice still. Pittsburgh still has the Packers and Miami on the schedule, too. Baltimore might have the easiest road left of all these teams, but they still have the Packers and they're such a who-knows? team they could easily lose at Oakland at the end of the year.

Houston has Indy, Jacksonville, Miami, and New England left as the tough games.

Anyone trust Jacksonville in this mix? They just barely beat Buffalo last week and now they play San Fran on the road, which will be a tough game, Houston, Miami, and New England for the next 4 games.

Miami has to play New England, Jacksonville, Tennessee, Houston, and Pittsburgh to end the year. Anyone seeing them go 5-1?

Denver: Giants, Colts, Eagles. They have several other interesting games, 2 with KC and 1 with Oakland. Anyone seeing them going even 4-2 on this stretch?

The Jets, who I think are completely insignificant at this point (and yes, they beat the Titans and have the same record...which satisfies me no end after hearing the 3-and-0 chants after that game), still have to play Carolina, Atlanta, Cincy, and Indy.

Again, I'm not even saying the Titans will go 10-6, but that 10-6 will get the playoff berth. The Titans have a pretty rough road ahead as well, with Arizona, Indy, Miami, and San Diego left as the tough games. I mean, being 4-6 is not a good prospect going into that kind of remaining schedule. However, they have 4 out of 6 games remaining at home. The way they are playing, the Seattle and St. Louis games should be locks for at least a 6-win season. Come away with winnable games like Arizona and Miami, maybe get a break against Indy or San Diego, you might have a 9-7 team looking at a decent chance.

Kansas City and Oakland, both 3-7 teams, will have lots to say about the Titans' minuscule chances. They've come up with some impressive wins. If they sneak by some of these teams mentioned above, then this could get really interesting. We could be looking at the rare 8-8 team getting in.

Seriously, after the 0-6 start, who thought the Titans would be 2 games away from the leading Wild Card contenders?

Belichick's Call

I'm going to put my opinion in the comments, but here's a great analysis by the cold numbers. Run your own numbers here.

The Belichick Gamble

As is expected, Bill Belichick is being widely criticized for his decision to go for it on 4th and 2 on his own 28 with a 34-28 lead and roughly 2 minutes left against the Colts Sunday night.

I actually didn't think this was that bad of a decision, had the Patriots played differently after the play came up short.

If you get it, you win. If you don't get it, then you basically allow the Colts to score a touchdown too quickly, get the ball back, and try a field goal to win it.

They had a chance for this to happen with about a minute left, when they decided to tackle Joseph Addai one yard short of the end zone just before the winning TD to Reggie Wayne. Had they allowed Addai to score there, then the Colts would not have run off more time before finally making the winning play.

We've always heard of the idea of allowing the opposition to score to get the ball back with time on the clock (I've never seen it), and this was the perfect time to do it. And I thought they were going to allow Addai to score on that play. It looked like half the defenders were thinking that, but the other half didn't get the message.

Whenever a decision such as Belichick's last night occurs, and it doesn't work, then the idea must be, "What is our best chance to win now?" rather than "We should have punted." Once it didn't work, Belichick should have said, "OK, make it look as good as you can, but let them score, unless Manning throws a gift-wrapped ball your way."

Then you put the ball in the hands of Brady, and I'm sure he could get the yards required to put them in position for a field goal.

I think people might be too hard on Belichick considering he just saw Manning carve up his defense in 2 minutes on the previous drive. A punt would have put the Colts around the 25-30 yard line depending on the kind of return, and with 2 minutes and a timeout he could have easily gotten them back to that same spot in no time.

So, the bad decision to me was not going for it on 4th down, but not allowing the TD earlier. Because you knew that was going to happen anyway, so give yourself a chance to win.

Yet Another NFL Promotion/Relegation Idea

Well Doc, it doesn't take much to get me going on this topic. I've debated how this whole NFL relegation thing could work, and I think something might be needed in time, if only to counteract how many horrible teams there are these days. For years the Bengals stank while raking in millions of dollars, and other teams are starting to follow the same course. The NFL is a river of money, and all you have to do is be in the club.

And so we get wonderful gems like Lions-Rams, and weekends where half the games are one star games. If we're to keep the salary cap, which does at least give every team a chance, we have to find a way to punish the awful teams where the front office has stopped trying. So lets kick some teams out.

For the life of me I can't figure out why there can't be a reasonable second tier league played in the fall, or even in the spring, as a minor league. It works so well in baseball, and even the miserably boring Arena League survived for years.

So, two tiers should work, and we need more teams. Let's give 13 cities a team, or even a second team, to create a second league with 15 teams. LA could have two. Here are the next 13 major metropolitan areas without an NFL team:

LA
Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
Portland
Sacramento
Orlando
San Antonio
Las Vegas
San Jose
Columbus
Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News
Austin
Providence-New Bedford-Fall River
Memphis

Okay, and some of those wouldn't work because they are too close to very popular existing teams. But every single one of them is larger than New Orleans or Buffalo. And further down the list we see:

Louisville
Salt Lake City
Raleigh-Durham
Winston-Salem
Grand Rapids
Hartford
Oklahoma City
Greenville
Birmingham
Richmond

And there are a handful more that have populations of over 1m. Of these lists, are there 13 cities that could field their own team? No doubt about it. And I'd bet at least one of these markets would be a major success. You might even have room for an NFL III.

So here's my proposal, which I'm trying to keep as realistic as possible. We have a new second tier with fifteen teams. The worst team in the NFC and AFC are relegated, leaving just 30 teams in the NFL (like the old format, which I prefer). So, in two years, surely predicated by which big money owners showed up, your NFL II league consists of:

NFC Worst team (Lions/Rams)
AFC Worst team (Raiders)
LA #1
LA #2
Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
Portland
Sacramento
Orlando
San Antonio
Las Vegas
San Jose
Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News
Austin
Memphis
Louisville

This league is more stripped down, with the format being seven home games and seven road games, playing every team once. The top team is promoted, and the second and third team playoff for promotion, that game possibly being the most lucrative game of the year. Relegation would be determined by a short playoff between all teams that couldn't win five games. Imagine the drama as the Titans try to win five games this year! The whole Vince Young thing would have even more impact.

Now, how would you work out the details? Like salary cap and the draft? I say everybody gets to play at the same salary cap, and NFL II teams are mixed in starting at the third round of the draft, with a few more rounds added at the end. Plenty more debate to be had here.

Of course, the owners may never go for all this because you'd be harming their cash cows. Maybe if they got some cash up front for franchise fess that would help. Are there other problems?

0-3

They just don't have any edge to them. They do not make their own luck. They don't press the issue and put their opponents on the back foot. They make dumb mistakes and are punished for it. They don't take advantage of other's mistakes. In a league filled with parity, that makes it very tough to win.

It's not Kerry Collins fault, limited as he is. His strengths are enough for a team to win, and his accuracy today was on a high level. Chris Johnson is turning into a fantastic running back. I guess that leaves it on the defense, and of course special teams.

A few years ago, a 1-4 start became a loss in the AFC Championship, but it seems unlikely to happen again. You'll likely hear Fisher saying that we just need to be patient and play our game, but it's not good enough in a game this emotional. I don't see the possibility that the needed change in attitude will come.

P.S.: One final note. The Comcast sports package is a must have now that the NFL RedZone channel is included. It is fantastic, and ESPN U is included as well.

A Note From the Game

If you want to see my thoughts on the loss yesterday, check out my comments on Chris' last post. And I pretty much agree with his thoughts as well. If this truly is a team capable of winning it all, then it was a good loss. I'm still not so sure.

But I have to say one thing about the game that I thought was in incredibly bad taste. Before the game, the genius' that run the in-game entertainment decided to have a fake Fireman Ed on the field, who I'm particularly fond of. The fake did a J-E-T-S cheer, which only let all the away fans yell a hearty cheer. Awesome. Then, they let out what I guess is our OWN cheer, a horribly country, yet stupidly corporate cheer, straight from the WWE; a "Whoooo" or some crap like that. I think Steve Austin does it or something.

And then? They made Ed into an effigy and threw him off the top of the stadium. On video, of course. Simulating the death of an actual person. I thought this was way over the top. It was enough to make me wish I'd just stayed home. I have HD there, and cheaper food.

Titans Exposed By Jets

I had seen a few Jets games this year, and I had followed a few Titans games, and just on a hunch it looked ugly. The Titans, of course, had been fortunate to win some games this year based on the fact that the teams they had played had just a few more flaws than they did. This matchup with the Jets, as I had mentioned to Jets fans, scared me.

The "bend but don't break" defense had its special charms. You could rely on the Titans to allow yardage between the 20s and then make a play or rely on mistakes to stop drives. But when you have a guy like Brett Favre and a variety of offensive weapons at his disposal, the "bend but don't break" just found the limits of its tensile strength.

We always wonder if there's such thing as a "good loss." It's better to see what glaring flaws you have and can't get away with in the playoffs before the playoffs begin. The Jets are a potential opponent in a very down year for the AFC. The NFC has re-emerged lately, and the Giants look like the class of the league. If the Titans are to match up with any playoff opponent like the Jets (and I think the Colts will also be a player in the end), they're going to need to work on that offense a little more. I think the Jets scoring at least 24 points yesterday was inevitable, and a turnover cashed in another score for the Jets. So the Titans only hope yesterday would have been to catch those passes they dropped and do some more freaking play-action and open up the field.

It still befuddles me as to why Jeff Fisher, a smart guy, doesn't ever want to use much play-action. Granted, I haven't seen a Titans game all the way through all year, but from what I've seen, deception is still not a part of the offense.

I'll take this stinging loss if it means beating the Jets in the AFC Championship game. That would be sweet, but there's a lot to clean up until then.

So Why Is the MLB and NHL Champ More Random?

I started out writing this as a comment, but I think it's a subject worthy of study and decided to make it a post.

True, true. MLB and NHL have more random champs than anyone. I wonder, though, how much of the data is skewed between the four sports depending on these factors:

1. Number of teams allowed in the playoffs.

The MLB allows 8, the NHL 16, the NBA 16, and the NFL 12.

My theory, and I would be wrong based purely on this data, is that the more teams allowed in the playoffs, the more random it gets. It wouldn't explain the NBA's higher winning percentage, and wouldn't explain the MLB's lower winning percentage.

It makes me wonder: is the NBA the sport where talent matters the most, and isn't as susceptible to randomness like the other sports?

And then I take a look at the difference between the NCAA tourney and the NBA: randomness occurs far more often, probably because it's one-and-done.

2. Number of games played in the season, skewing winning percentages.

NBA 82, NHL 82, MLB 162, NFL 16.

I think most teams can get into the playoffs with a 10-6 record in the NFL, with some exceptions being lower. 10-6 works out to .625, and even 9-7 is .562. Remember this is your usual wild-card team, so there are teams with better records. It's not uncommon to have a couple of 13-3 (.812) or 14-2 (.875) teams in the mix.

The reason I bring this up is that you don't find teams in any other sport that win more than 80% of their games. In the MLB, 80% is 129-33 (never has happened), the NBA and NHL it's 65-17, which isn't exactly common. I think we can take the NFL out of the "better winning percentage" category based on how skewed the records are due to the amount of games played. Your worst NFL playoff team has winning percentage right around the best of baseball teams.

It still doesn't explain the NBA, though. With the exact amount of games played and number of teams allowed in the playoffs as the NHL, why are those two sports so different?

Could it be that goaltending is an integral part of the NHL, and is a foul in the NBA?

I wonder how the NHL would be without a goaltender (and to the point that an NHL ref could award a goal to a team if the puck is about to go in the goal and is blocked). Your skill guys would take over, and it would be less random. Just a theory. The NBA, meanwhile, mostly allows guys to shoot towards the basket with a reasonable expectation that it won't get blocked. This allows your best shooters to do what they do best. And while shooting is not the only part of the game, and is susceptible to some randomness, I think your skill guys have a better chance to thrive in the NBA.

Meanwhile, in the MLB, there is an obvious randomness that leads a sport with only 8 teams in the playoffs to crown unworthy champs. I've always disliked the idea that in a short series, a team with two good pitchers will find a way to use those guys as often as possible (and we're in the age of the 5-man rotation), and teams get more days off in a week than they do in a week in the regular season. The playoffs are played differently, and therefore, it's mostly a different game.

NHL, same thing. Overtime games are not the same, you no longer have the shootout, and it seems like (and I don't know how to verify this quickly) more penalties are called. I still think the NHL's real reason for having more random champs is just the randomness of the sport itself. Skill guys, while having a better chance at helping their team win, are still subject to the whims of the game.

And in the NFL, this sport is famous for not calling as many penalties in the playoffs, especially the Super Bowl, and therefore the game is changed. Plus, the neutral site (which I don't favor, at all, and the MLB is mulling it over...ugh) for the Super Bowl takes away the home crowd.

So perhaps the NBA has two things going for it: the games aren't played much differently other than harder and more physical, and your skill guys have a better chance to thrive. Therefore, your better teams are going to win more often than not.

Anyone care to comment, refute, or support?

Are the Titans Lucky, Good, Both, or Neither?

The Titans are 9-0 and are drumming up excitement like back in 1999. That team was also famously offense-deprived and their defense was also bend-but-don't-break, leading up to that improbable Super Bowl run. Back then, though, I remember feeling some confidence in the team. This year's undefeated version seems destined to fail every week.

This is not a question we ask in the pre-salary cap era. The salary cap has redefined what being good in the NFL is, to the point we still don't know what the hell it is when we're supposed to see it. All of the teams currently vying for playoff positions are so deeply flawed, I think the NFL has become the least predictable of the sports, even though currently all sports are mired in some form of mediocrity being passed off as great.

The Phillies are champions of the MLB, but would have lost to a great many of the teams that won championships before it. The Celtics were last year's best NBA team and were pushed to the brink by a losing-record, but playoff-bound, Atlanta Hawks team. And in hockey, although the Red Wings were the best team and won the Stanley Cup, the Nashville Predators came fairly close (closer than RW fans would like) to ousting them in the first round.

But the Titans are riding what so many teams in this era that have won Super Bowls have been riding: that, "I don't see how they do it, but they do it," mantra that the earlier Patriots winners, the Ravens, Steelers, and Giants have all enjoyed. But the Titans' success could end just like that (snappping fingers), so uneasy is the precipice in the NFL. I don't know what to make of this team. Somehow they've scored the 4th most points in the AFC and lead the entire league in scoring defense. It's kind of hard to get truly excited. I get the feeling they could lose 7 games in a row after this and it wouldn't be a surprise.

OK, dumb media alert: I saw some comment on ESPN on Sunday that said the Jaguars, the Titans' next opponent, have some sort of pent-up feelings about that 1999 season where they lost 3 games, all to the Titans, including the AFC Championship. Those who know me know where I'm going with this: how many players are still around, from both teams, from 1999? For the Jags...Fred Taylor...isn't that about it? Titans: Jevon Kearse, who played in Philly for the last few seasons. I guess it could be a "war of hard feelings" between two players festering hard feelings for 9 years after they've already played each other once this season...but it at least seems insignificant. I don't know...maybe I'm dumb.

Holy Roller - Censored!

Congrats to the NFL Network for censoring one of most interesting plays in thier history. The famous Holy Roller play from the 70's had one of the best calls you've ever heard, but they have decided that you can't hear the word "butt". That's great. I just watched an old highlights show on the network, and it's not there!

Here it is in all its glory: