Belichick's Call

I'm going to put my opinion in the comments, but here's a great analysis by the cold numbers. Run your own numbers here.

The Belichick Gamble

As is expected, Bill Belichick is being widely criticized for his decision to go for it on 4th and 2 on his own 28 with a 34-28 lead and roughly 2 minutes left against the Colts Sunday night.

I actually didn't think this was that bad of a decision, had the Patriots played differently after the play came up short.

If you get it, you win. If you don't get it, then you basically allow the Colts to score a touchdown too quickly, get the ball back, and try a field goal to win it.

They had a chance for this to happen with about a minute left, when they decided to tackle Joseph Addai one yard short of the end zone just before the winning TD to Reggie Wayne. Had they allowed Addai to score there, then the Colts would not have run off more time before finally making the winning play.

We've always heard of the idea of allowing the opposition to score to get the ball back with time on the clock (I've never seen it), and this was the perfect time to do it. And I thought they were going to allow Addai to score on that play. It looked like half the defenders were thinking that, but the other half didn't get the message.

Whenever a decision such as Belichick's last night occurs, and it doesn't work, then the idea must be, "What is our best chance to win now?" rather than "We should have punted." Once it didn't work, Belichick should have said, "OK, make it look as good as you can, but let them score, unless Manning throws a gift-wrapped ball your way."

Then you put the ball in the hands of Brady, and I'm sure he could get the yards required to put them in position for a field goal.

I think people might be too hard on Belichick considering he just saw Manning carve up his defense in 2 minutes on the previous drive. A punt would have put the Colts around the 25-30 yard line depending on the kind of return, and with 2 minutes and a timeout he could have easily gotten them back to that same spot in no time.

So, the bad decision to me was not going for it on 4th down, but not allowing the TD earlier. Because you knew that was going to happen anyway, so give yourself a chance to win.

Super Bowl Thoughts, Notes, Suggestions, and WhatHaveYou

-I wrote all this at work today. Not really that much to do...

-It was like the Pats were never really into it. Brady was never under that kind of pressure this year, the Giants D looked fantastic because of it. When the Pats started to get those breaks that they always seemed to get this year, like the interception that fell into that guys hands, they wouldn't let them capitalize. I thought that was it, they were going to make it 14-3, and it never happened. Brady wasn't really on when he wasn't being pressured, with several passes thrown behind his receivers. It was strange from front to back, but it only made it a better game. We'll be talking about this for a long time.

-A theory; Billy B. took the life out of them. He was looking harder and harder throughout the year, admittedly from a distance, but a coach can do that. In the end he just looked soulless, too hard. I don't hate him for that, because you have to be a different kind of person to be an NFL coach, but I think it worked against him yesterday.

-That play that Manning made? You'll be seeing it when you're 80, over and over again.

-The Patriots cheat... and so do many other teams in the league, and quite a few players as well. And, in reality, the NFL doesn't care as long as it doesn't affect their image. That's why they destroyed the tapes, that's why they haven't investigated the Panthers using HGH before the Super Bowl a few years ago, and that's why their drug testing is a joke. Why would they do any different? The NFL as a whole is valued in the billions of dollars now, and no federal laws that they break will cost them as much as a substantial hit to their image could. There's too much money involved in sports now for it NOT to happen. And the media doesn't care, because the last thing they'd want is to kill the entertainment that so many read about in their pages. And who else is there to call them out on anything?

At this point, I think of it as a couple of notches above the WWF, but much more entertaining. I can't help but think that the NFL is going to receive its comeuppance at some point, but don't know when. I'll say it again; if there were a Mitchell report for the NFL, the league would have to shut down for a year. Doesn't that temper your enthusiasm for the league, even a bit?

-All those people surrounding the Petty stage - where do they come from? Do they just stay under the stadium in some enclosed place? Are they forced to leave the stadium when the halftime show is over? Do they watch on a big screen in some remote place? Do you get in by knowing someone, or by being attractive, or young, or what?

-I wish the half-time show weren't so long - I think it affects the players, and I'm not in favor of that.

-I'm thrilled that there is a dominant team in the NFL. For years I was afraid that there never would be another one, that every team would slowly fall to the mean, and that I'd never see another great team again. For the first ten weeks of the season, the Pats were a great team, and I was happy, even thrilled. Finally a team to compare to the 49ers and Cowboys of the 80's (for fear of my life, I kept this opinion to myself)! Yes, I want emotion in sports, and no, I don't want the same teams to win every year, but I also crave greatness, something to watch and be amazed by, something to give high praise to. And for a while we had it, and it was great fun. So maybe this salary cap thing does work, huh? The best teams have the least egos, and intelligence is desired in coaches. This is very interesting to me.

-So, in European sports, regardless of the sport, it is completely free market, and the biggest teams only get bigger as bandwagon fans become permanent; there is never a prolonged period of losing to kill them off! Soon it becomes very hard for other teams to compete. This means that, in Spain, not only are Barcelona and Real Madrid the two biggest soccer teams in the country, they are also the two biggest basketball teams in the country, by far, and could do the same in other sports if they wanted, making the Yankees dominance look pitiful. This would never fly in this country, and I'm glad for it.

-One thing I do like about European sports is promotion and relegation, where the worst teams are sent down to a lower division, and the best teams are promoted to a higher one. So, maybe that combined with a salary cap, and we could have some fantastically entertaining leagues. Oh well, I can dream, I guess.

-I like this.

-I once went undefeated in Tecmo Super Bowl using the Bucs, back when they were horrible. It was my only perfect season. I think I should be proud of that.

-Here's the thing about a mediocre team getting hot and winning the title; their goodness will be over-estimated for a long time. New York fans - and they are legion - will continue to bring them up, speaking about what a magical team they are, when they really just got hot for a couple of months, if that. Like the Bears, I bet they don't make the playoffs next year. If they were in the AFC, they wouldn't have made it in this year.

-And yes, as you may have expected me to say, please don't tell me the Giants are the best team in the NFL. They aren't. Please direct all hatred and slander towards the comments section.

The Giants Have Done It

This NFL season definitely fails the Mike test for "What should decide our champion?" because the New York Giants have beaten the New England Patriots 17-14, ending the Patriots' perfect season at 18-1. Imagine that. You lose one game all year and it's the freaking Super Bowl. Historic doesn't even begin to touch it.

Not only did the best team all year not win, but they had to win it against a team they had already beaten. For awhile, I watched this thinking, "Well, the Patriots never win pretty but they always find a way...somehow..." and miraculously they didn't.

I wish I could say I was at a New York bar tonight experiencing the celebration, but I decided to watch this from the safety of my own home. But I know the city erupted on this win tonight and this will go down as legendary, probably sweeter than the Parcells-era Super Bowls. I really became a Giants fan during all this...and that fandom will, in a funny way, probably all end when the next season begins.

What a hell of a catch by David Tyree on that last drive...he should be the MVP, no doubt.

Biggest upset ever. Classic Super Bowl. What fun.

SB XLII

I've got a bad feeling about this one. Watched the game with George yesterday, and I'm not thinking this is gonna be pretty. The New York media will talk themselves into it, but, man, it could get real ugly real quick. Watching the first game, even with a lifeless Pats team that seemed to be going through the motions, they still found a way to stop the Chargers every time in the red zone. They HAD to score a TD to win that game, they knew they had to, and they couldn't.

The second game seemed like just mistake after mistake, with the least worst team winning. How can that Giants team I watched yesterday put it together, especially with a Pats team that I fele will be motivated again, with two weeks of game planning and rest behind them? I feel a late 80's SB thrashing coming on again, and a sorry way to end our football for the year. Oh well.

Belichick is a Genius, Haven't You Heard?

Someone on one of the radio stations a few weeks back brought up a great point about Bill Belichick. And this, of course, has been brought up before but it doesn't get nearly enough play: He was a head coach once of the Cleveland Browns, and went 36-44 over five seasons. Hardly someone you could call a genius, at least then. And then, in 2001, after Belichick's first season in which he went 5-11, Drew Bledsoe gets hurt and then enter Tom Brady, and all of the sudden the Patriots started winning Super Bowls.

The point is, as we all know, it takes great personnel to win games. There are probably some coaches out there that could take this current 17-0 Patriots and lose more ballgames than Belichick, but I almost guarantee those same coaches would be in the playoffs anyway. And when you have guys like Corey Dillon a few years ago and Randy Moss this year willing to play for less on a team that is already good, becoming a genius is so much easier.

I heard this usual overwhelming praise for Belichick a lot yesterday, as if people can't say enough how incredible he is. He could not take over the Miami Dolphins tomorrow and make them the same team as the Patriots. However, there is a sort of domino effect to his perceived reputation, and that is players will want to play for him now that he's won so much. And maybe he could take the hypothetical Dolphins to a Super Bowl in a few years, but it would be because he has people on the field that can execute.

Also, I really like Tom Brady. I've always thought he was a great field commander, because he efficiently ran a game without major stars. And we now see what he can do when he has at least one. But we can no longer compare him to Peyton Manning and say one is better than the other. They are both as excellent as you can possibly be. If you had a choice between the two, you can't lose. I'm sure there will be lots of wasted time trying to decide who's better long after they retire. Belichick is lucky to have one of them.