My Football Predictions

Have I ever been really good at predicting the salary-cap era of the NFL? No. Am I going to diligently try to predict it? Yes. Let me kick this off by saying I don't know how much any of these teams changed over the offseason except for the major ones, so at times I will be talking completely out of my rear end. Last year I predicted the Bucs would repeat, citing that there was no real reason to pick against almost every team that made the playoffs the previous year, but things always happen.

NFC EAST

1. Philadelphia Eagles
2. Washington Redskins
3. Dallas Cowboys
4. New York Giants

I like the new-look Redskins, with Brunell as QB, Portis as RB, and Joe Gibbs as Coach. I like their situation better than the Cowboys, who made strides last year under Bill Parcells but ultimately got lucky to make the playoffs. I think the Giants are in rebuilding mode, which means they'll be in first place by the end of the year and they'll be looking for a place to shop Eli Manning after Kurt Warner comes in with another breakout season.

Ultimately, though, all three teams have to go through the perennial NFC runners-up Eagles, who have found an offensive threat in Terrell Owens, who should open up big things for the receivers in whom they blamed last year's NFC Championship loss. The addition of Jevon Kearse fortifies a sound defense as long as he stays healthy. I don't think this is a minority pick, which kind of disappoints me.

NFC SOUTH

1. Atlanta Falcons
2. Carolina Panthers
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
4. New Orleans Saints

The hardest thing to pick about this wacky division is the whole damn thing. Any of these teams could easily be 1st. My gut tells me that if I'm wrong about this, it will specifically be the places of 1 and 2, then 3 and 4, meaning I believe either Atlanta or Carolina wins or finishes 2nd, and either Tampa or New Orleans finishes 3rd or last. Carolina's run last year was a little too lucky for me to pick them again this year, but they are an all-around solid team. Tampa got two veteran receivers in Tim Brown and Joey Galloway, giving Brad Johnson decent recievers in which to throw, but they are aging and their defense took a hit when Sapp moved to Oakland and John Lynch went to Denver. New Orleans just doesn't seem ready to take a playoff spot, because they are essentially the same team.

I am picking the Atlanta Falcons here because when Michael Vick was healthy, the Falcons played out of their ass. A guy who makes his team better all-around, excited to come to play, is important in the NFL. I'm still worried about that defense, but it should be able to be off the field a little longer now that Vick is there, and he's got Peerless Price to throw to, and TJ Duckett and Warrick Dunn running the ball. They should make noise.

NFC WEST

1. Seattle Seahawks
2. St. Louis Rams
3. Arizona Cardinals
4. San Francisco 49ers

A playoff party, including many of the people who are on the "Any Given Sunday" fantasy league, watched with utter shock and dismay as offensive "guru" Mike Martz played for the tie in last year's NFC Divisional Playoffs against Carolina when the win was clearly in his sights. It's hard to pick against the Rams because of the offensive talent that still remains on this team, but as long as Martz holds the reins, it can be assured the Rams can't go as far as they should be able to. The Arizona Cardinals should get a little bit of life with Dennis Green, who is not a genius by any means but should be able to take this team ahead of the crumbling 49ers, who lost Owens and Garcia in the offseason.

My pick is the Seahawks, a vogue Super Bowl pick this year, because they have an exciting team, a team that was forced to attention with the play from Matt Hasselbeck and Shaun Alexander. If it were not for one poorly thrown pass, I believe the Seahawks would have made it last year.

NFC NORTH

1. Minnesota Vikings
2. Green Bay Packers
3. Detroit Lions
4. Chicago Bears

The Green Bay Packers had a year where surprisingly, they might have made the NFC Championship, and then who knows after that? All of this after barely making the playoffs in the first place. The Packers will always be a team that other teams need to be wary of, but I believe they may have made their last stand last year. Brett Favre still talks like a champion, but he's beginning to sound like Troy Aikman in his last days. I can't see a reason in this division to pick the Lions or Bears.

Last year's Minnesota Vikings, in the first half, didn't lose. Then they fell apart. There seems to be a lot of good buzz about hard-working head coach Mike Tice, and perhaps he will try to avoid the pitfalls of last year somehow. I think the Vikings are at least better than all the other teams in here, which I know isn't exactly a whole-hearted endorsement. It's just that all the other teams are rebuilding or are down, which means that when all is said and done, the Detroit Lions are going to come out of nowhere to be 1st in here. That's the way these kinds of divisions are. When there are no certainties, the surprise team hits it big.

AFC EAST

1. New York Jets
2. New England Patriots
3. Miami Dolphins
4. Buffalo Bills

Huh? The New England Patriots won 15 in a row after a 2-2 start, and they got Corey Dillon in the backfield, and they've won 2 Super Bowls in the last 3 years, what more do you want from this team, Chris? Do they have to win EVERY year before you give them some respect? Well, guys, I respect the Patriots tremendously. I didn't really after their first Super Bowl win, and they came right out of the gate destroying teams the next year before crumbling and not even making the playoffs, but I really liked them last year, after awhile, even though I didn't pick them anywhere near the playoffs at the beginning of the year.

My problem with a Patriots repeat is all of the buzz surrounding them. Hold on, Chris, that's not a real reason! You're right, talent wins and not buzz. I just happen to think that the Jets are better now that Chad Pennington is back, and I think the Dolphins are better than people think after Ricky Williams "retired" and David Boston got hurt. Which means the Patriots will be staring at a 10-6 season instead of the out-of-this-world 14-2 that ushered them into the home-field advantage. I'm almost as sick of the experts picking this team as I am hearing Michael Moore rant nowadays.

Miami, a tempting choice to pick first with all the negative buzz around them, still have a good defense, an underated QB in Fiedler, a great receiver in Chambers, and they just picked up Lamar Gordon to fill their RB spot. They might very well be ahead of the Pats by the end of the year. I can't muster anything that will help the Bills in this division.

I pick the Jets because Chad Pennington had this team purring by the end of last year, and now with Justin McCareins and Santana Moss receiving alongside reliable RB Curtis Martin, this is going to be a good offensive team, and with just enough defense, I think they are the surprise pick...barely.

AFC WEST

1. Kansas City Chiefs
2. Denver Broncos
3. Oakland Raiders
4. San Diego Chargers

I think this is how it ended last year, and with the changes that these teams have made I have no real reason to think that it will be different. The Denver Broncos will always remain a mystery, with all that talent, how they could be so average. They did get John Lynch, but is he the same Lynch? Quentin Griffin will prove that almost any RB can run in Denver, and I expect with Jake Plummer back, they will be better than they were last year. The Raiders are almost to the point where the Chargers are now, and neither team speaks to me as teams that can emerge with the other two teams in this division.

The Chiefs were able to outscore the points allowed by their defense, which I heard one guy on radio saying, early last year, that they would be good enough to win a 17-10 game. And why not? They sure gave the illusion that they would be the best team in the NFL early on, but look at some real lucky kickoff returns by Dante Hall--they could have easily been lower in the pack during that stretch. I won't forget, as many of you might, the AFC Divisional game against the Colts where, after Manning threw his 80th TD pass of the game, the defensive coordinator saying, "I don't know what to do!" They have Gunther Cunningham now, who used to be the head coach here and was a defensive specialist with the Titans last year. I think a little bit of his wisdom may help them continue to be a premiere team.

AFC NORTH

1. Baltimore Ravens
2. Cincinnati Bengals
3. Pittsburgh Steelers
4. Cleveland Browns

Last year, the Bengals just missed the playoffs. This year, they should make them, with an all-around good offense with several weapons. This time, however, it will not be Jon Kitna leading this team, it will be Carson Palmer, who has looked pretty good so far, but Kitna's removal may make them stall a bit. Once again, I couldn't really tell you anything that would make me pick the Steelers (nope, not Duce Staley) or the Browns (nope, not Jeff Garcia).

The Baltimore Ravens are the pick here because of, duh, the defense, and a QB who came into his own last year in Kyle Boller, who has Jamal Lewis in his backfield and he has several options to throw to, notably TE Todd Heap. The defense is always solid, and I'm going to make this statement: Deion Sanders is not going to be a difference-maker here. I think he's going to get outran most of the time and teams will be tempted to throw deep. Which means, teams are going to have to be able to throw deep, to set up other options, to win.

AFC SOUTH

1. Tennessee Titans
2. Indianapolis Colts
3. Jacksonville Jaguars
4. Houston Texans

Am I biased? First off, am I biased that I believe this will be the toughest division in the NFL this year? The Jags and Texans could take spots previously only held by the Colts and Titans if either of those teams slip a little. It would surprise me very little to see the Jags in fact be within a game of either of these teams. And the Texans are improved, too. Remember, all of these teams played close games against one another last year, some swapping wins. I've got the Colts in 2nd because of, duh, the offense. But that defense still doesn't look world-class and they'll need it here.

I've been watching the Titans, not jumping the gun on what I see in preseason, but Chris Brown looks fantastic here, and I think that will only open up a receiving core that includes Derrick Mason and usually sure-handed Drew Bennett, along with the improved Tyrone Calico when he returns from knee injuries. I'd always suspected that if Eddie George was a little bit faster, he would have been able to put up huge numbers. He just kept stalling and falling down when there were holes for him to hit. Brown is fast enough to hit them. I also think the defense, while not perfect, certainly has the chance of shutting down the run on most occasions, and with healthy corners they should be able to defend most passes. I will say, I am biased for one reason and that's because I see the Titans more than any other team, but there's a lot to get excited about here.

Playoffs

NFC WILD CARD

Panthers over Redskins
Falcons over Vikings

NFC DIVISIONAL

Eagles over Falcons
Seahawks over Panthers

NFC CHAMPIONSHIP

Seahawks over Eagles (damn, sorry Philly)

AFC WILD CARD

Ravens over Jets
Patriots over Bengals

AFC DIVISIONAL

Titans over Ravens
Colts over Patriots

AFC CHAMPIONSHIP

Titans over Colts

SUPER BOWL

Titans over Seahawks

I'm totally biased. Shoot me now. But I just can't pick it any other way. It makes sense to me, I guess, which means the Super Bowl will likely be Redskins-Bengals.