What Was The Gauge Again?

From nearly every publication or website that covered it, the summer box office was in a slump--using each weekend's box office numbers against a comparable frame from last year's. We heard the record streak of losing weeks, using this formula, and we saw exhaustive analysis asking the question why people weren't coming to the movies anymore...and we got the stunning answers that prices were too high, that people didn't like commercials, and didn't like other loud patrons...You know, the same old crap that people have always bitched about for years.

Now, the gloomy month of September has arrived, and studios are dumping all sorts of movies they never believed in into theatres. Guess what? Box office numbers have consistently beaten 2004 for three weeks. I have already made the prediction in an earlier post that this year's total box office is going to beat last year's, and this is a modest start but one that I believe will swell in the next three months.

But is the story now that the numbers are up, using the exact criteria used all summer, dominating talk about theatre attendance? No! There's more criticism! The box office pundits, like the ones at Box Office Mojo, give this headline after Just Like Heaven became the number one movie over the weekend: 'Just Like Heaven' No Cure For B.O. Blahs. In the same article, it admits that the weekend's box office beat last year's--NOTE TO BRANDON GRAY: You just fucking contradicted yourself! You can't use one single criteria all summer and then backtrack! You're fucking stuck!

Sure, Just Like Heaven didn't "Burn Up the Box Office," as the laughable headline read after Fantastic Four made $48 million in its opening weekend and ended the phantom slump. But that's the angle Gray goes after, citing Sweet Home Alabama's record-breaking September take in 2002, noting that Reese Witherspoon has opened much bigger before. So now, I guess, we have to compare a certain star's new movie grosses with the best opening weekend that star has ever had. Using this criteria, Mr. Gray, then you have to backtrack on War of the Worlds and all the bullshit you wrote about that. Because that was Tom Cruise's biggest opening weekend ever. Fuck you and your stupid nonsense.

People like Brandon Gray and all the other box office experts from USA Today and Entertainment Weekly are like scientists who forget the scientific method. You have something you want to prove--that something is that people don't go to movies anymore. Prove it. OK, I'll use this weekend versus last year's same weekend. Our results look very good! Let's use that and use that. Oops...wait a minute, box office is up three weeks in a row, THAT'S NOT GOOD FOR OUR HYPOTHESIS. Quick, let's find a way to continue this research because we know we're right...OK, lemme see...Ooo! Here's one! Reese Witherspoon opened Sweet Home Alabama to a $35 million take in September 2002, and now she has a movie called Just Like Heaven that made only $16 million. Compare that and that, and we're back on track! People still really aren't going to the movies after all. Champagne for everyone!

I do not accuse these people of wanting box office to fail. I just think journalistically, they want to continue to be proven correct after all of this exhaustive analysis, and they don't want to admit how idiotic and toothless their arguments are. The latest in box office analysis proves this, because they are reluctant to say that the box office is in an upswing, or more accurately, wasn't ever in a downswing in the first place--and by that, I mean, using the correct formulas to tabulate success.

By the way, this week is easily going to be week number 4 in the winning streak. With Corpse Bride and Flightplan taking on last year's The Forgotten and First Daughter, this is in the bag. I'll be the first to admit my mistake if I'm wrong.