So much for that!

Well, despite Mark Prior striking out 16 Reds today, he gave up a crucial HR to Cub-killer Austin Kearns, which negated a Sammy Sosa HR an inning earlier, and the Cubs went on to lose in extra innings, 2-1.

What the hell happened to the damn Cubs?

Testing, testing, 1 - 2 - 3

I'm really too busy at work to be messing with this, but I'm dying to see if this works. Mt. St. Helen's webcam, live! It's about to blow, you know.

Hockey Thoughts (the game, not the lockout)

My buddy Kevin, who goes to many hockey games with Chris and myself during regular non-lockout-year seasons, has started his own blog. It's not entirely devoted to hockey, but as he's such a big fan I'm thinking hockey will be a major topic over there.

Today he has a post I think you should read, about how to improve the game of hockey. It's not at all related to the lockout, but is more about making the game more exciting and increasing scoring. He and I have often talked about this very topic he brings up, and I have to say I agree with him. Go here to read it.

I personally feel like rules should be rules. I get quite aggrevated about any sport where certain rules aren't called. Like when the NFL announcer calls something a "ticky-tack" call. Or when the no-penalties people start their chorus of "let them play" during any sport's playoff period. It's simple: if you want no call, then change the rule to allow the behavior you seek. If you want to let them play, then alter the rules. Don't call some things all year long and then let them slide during the biggest games of the year! That's ridiculous. If anything, you should be calling the penalties more often during the playoffs, because so much more is on the line. If it's a rule, call it...on the opening game of the year and on the closing championship game.

The logic of "let me get away with more since it's the most important game" just seems backwards to me. If you love the sport, then love it's rules and freaking don't break them. If you love the sport but hate the rules....well, then you actually hate the sport. Go play something different, or invent your own sport with no rules. It's just silly. All this talk of "let them play" comes from people who would claim to love the sport and its traditions and such. But the rules are as much a part of the traditions as anything else! Kevin is right on here, call the rules as written, in the small and in the big games...and the game improves. Slack off on the rules and the game goes to hell. Just look at the NBA.

Final Weekend of Regular Season

So, we know the Red Sox, Yankees, Twins, Braves, and Cardinals are going to the playoffs.

In the National League, what is unsettled is the NL West and Wild Card.

The Dodgers lead the NL West, and how in the hell did those Astros get the lead in the Wild Card?

The Giants, Cubs, and Padres are chasing the Wild Card. The Giants have an outside shot of getting the NL West. The Padres have an outside shot of getting the Wild Card.

Here's how I see things going down.

Houston does not have their pitching set up for this weekend series with Colorado (only Oswalt in the 2nd game), and even if Clemens comes back on 4 days rest, Colorado has a good chance of winning that 3rd game, since pitchers historically in this day and age do not have much luck pitching on 4 days rest. I see Houston losing 2 of 3.

Chicago (which also has a very important game against Cincy today, which I believe they will win) has pitchers the Atlanta Braves have trouble against. Even if Kerry Wood is struggling, he always pitches well against them. Zambrano is also a tough cookie. The game I don't see them winning is the one Maddux pitches. The former Braves have had a very tough time against their old club, and Maddux has started to lose it down the stretch. I see Chicago winning 2 of 3.

San Francisco plays Los Angeles (both have games today, San Fran plays San Diego, LA plays Colorado). This series is always good. San Francisco is going to have to sweep this to be still in it. They have Schmidt pitching the last game, and I bet he brings it if everything is on the line. The minus: Kirk Reuter in game 1. Tomko in game 2 is decent enough to win. I pick San Francisco, 2 of 3.

San Diego plays San Francisco today, and then finish with the lowly Diamondbacks. I believe San Diego may win the last 4 games. Yes, I think they sweep the Diamondbacks, and with a win over the Giants today, and everything goes exactly as I say I believe it will, the Padres will be tied with the Cubs for the Wild Card. It will then be a playoff between those two, which...I would pick the Cubs because Prior would be pitching that. Houston would be out by a game, San Francisco (if they lose to San Diego today and everything else works out) will also be a game out. I think there's no doubt that there will be a one-game playoff of some sort (there's even the possibility of 2 if the NL West AND Wild Card are deadlocked).

So, I pick the Dodgers to win the NL West, and the Cubs to win the Wild Card (despite their horrible play in the past week)

In the AL, I see the Angels sweeping the A's, the team that has completely self-destructed over the past month, and the Angels will be AL West champ.

Just my thoughts on what I believe will happen, which means the Astros will go on to win the Wild Card and the Giants will overtake the Dodgers for the NL West.

Expos Deserve Better

Jim Caple says it right. I'm passionate about this - baseball screwed a city over, and they didn't deserve it.

And, don't forget that there are several legal hurdles to be passed (in two countries?), and that nothing is in stone. I don't trust Selig - this could be a PR move. There's still a decent chance they'll be in Montreal another season. It's yet another shame on baseball, our glorious game still run by idiots.

Musings

The talk on 104.5 The Zone has speculated that Steve McNair has been a lot more hurt than we ever imagined, all year so far in fact. His ankle injury has been subject to talk about that being the cause for his many overthrows that we have seen, especially in the Jax game.

Looks like the Expos really are going to D.C. We can blame the lockout in 1994, for it certainly played a domino-effect role in the collapse of this franchise, but we're talking about a team that has had Randy Johnson, Pedro Martinez, Carl Pavano, Vladimir Guerrero, Marquis Grissom, Moises Alou, Larry Walker, among others, and have let them go. There was serious mis-management here, as has been well-documented, and certainly Montreal deserved better. It's a fine town, very fun, and the women there are hot--that alone should have given management a good reason to take care of this team.

Ahhh...fantasy football...it's a harsh mistress. I'm looking at another horrible season. Top Dawg keeps wanting to trade Michael Vick for Tom Brady. Brady, Shaun Alexander, and Chris Brown (sometimes Corey Dillon) are the only sure things I have. Everything else is dead weight. Can't take on the inconsistent Vick. And yes, I'll be the one who will make with the losing this week, KW. There's no way around it. I kick ass at almost every other fantasy sport (except for this two-week Fantasy Baseball World Series...damn you, Ichiro!)...why is football so damn hard?

Sealab 2021. Now that cracked my ass up tonight. I don't get to see it often, but damn, was that funny. Everyone was getting their brains cut out and turned into robots.

I have seen two hard-workin' bands in the past month and a half. Guided By Voices and King's X. These bands, I may only be able to enjoy live. They are kickass live bands, but I don't know if I could listen to an album just for fun.

Clash of the Titans

Well, it looks like Chris and I are squaring off in both fantasy footbal leagues this coming week. Great. I guess it's too much to ask that we split, and each win one. Why do I get the feeling one of us will lose both and feel bad, while the other will win both and feel worse.

In one league we are both tied for first, at 2-0...so only one of us will be on top after this week, while the other takes a slippery step toward mediocrity.

In the other league we are both clearly in the bottom half of the middle of the pack, at a Tennessee Titans-like 1-2. So one of us will win and have bragging rights of the average, while the other will lose and thus apply for charter membership in the Sucky Sucks--an offshoot of the Kiwanis Klub.

What's interesting about these matchups, you might ask? Well I'll tell you. Both Chris and I have this way of traditionally being at best okay (and at worst really bad) at fantasy football. I can't quote you Chris' stats from past years, but I know we both always seem to have good teams that can't win. So this week should set aside, once and for all, the debate over which one of us has the Murphy's Law of Fantasy Football applied to them most often.

Watch us tie in both leagues. That'd be funny. Much luck to us both...but especially me.

"Nos Amours" no more

Tomorrow is likely the last day a Major League Baseball game will be played in Olympic Stadium, and that's sad. This canada.com story spells it out pretty well. Nobody seems to realize that this stadium used to be the loudest in all of baseball, and a real pride for the city. It's too bad that the 1994 strike killed that great Expos team, and the lack of quality since then killed the Montreal fanbase. They were passionate once.

And this is how it relates to us. A non-traditional market that once had some of the loudest fans in the league loses its franchise, largely because a strike damaged fan interest, and poor teams that can't compete are fielded hereafter. The national media and the league front offices have no memory of what the team once meant to the city, assuming it's a bad sports town, and not worth spending money to put a winner in. Eventually the team leaves, and few are truly sad. Does this sound familiar? That's us, guys. I hate to see the similarities, but I'm afraid the Nashville Predators could easily become the Montreal Expos of the NHL.

The Forgotten, Sky Captain

1. The Forgotten (Director: Joseph Ruben)

Director Ruben is sort of a "high-trash" director, kind of like the territory mined by Adrian Lyne (Indecent Proposal, Lolita). Ruben's films include the good Return to Paradise but he also has Money Train, The Good Son, and Sleeping With the Enemy on his resume.

The Forgotten proves that you may have good chills in store for your audience, but that doesn't necessarily make it a great time at the movies. Earlier, I reviewed a film called Ju-On (which will later be Americanized as The Grudge) that was creepy as hell but as a story didn't make much sense. At least in Ju-On, though, it's meant to be an intense chiller throughout, and it gripped me. The story of The Forgotten follows Telly (Julianne Moore) a mother who has lost her son in a plane crash and is trying to cope with it. As time goes on, images of her son vanish from pictures and scrapbooks turn up only white pages. Even cherished videotapes turn up blank. So, of course, what the hell is going on, right?

Eventually, she has to start convincing people that she's not crazy, and she tries to convince another parent (Dominic West of "The Wire") that his daughter died in the same crash. So, the two of them embark on digging up dirt. The answer is really quite unsatisfying, but in the middle of all that there's some highly goose-flesh-inducing scenes that attempt to make you forget how lame everything really is. It's too bad, since it could have been something really worthwhile had they bothered to come up with a good explanation.

2. Sky Captain and the World of Tomorrow (D: Kerry Conran)

Many films have tried to become the next Raiders of the Lost Ark: Romancing the Stone, The Mummy, and Tomb Raider, and all the sequels to those movies. None have had all of the elements required to be the true heir.

Kerry Conran is already being anointed as the next Spielberg or Lucas with this intriguing directorial debut that computerized everything except the actors (well, they do throw in 15-years-deceased Sir Laurence Olivier from archival footage as the evil scientist). Of course, to be in the same league, you'd have to do better than just have pretty backgrounds and pay homage to Raiders, you have to engage the audience with not only a thrilling adventure but a sense that it all matters. This film very much is handicapped by improper aim.

Jude Law (in the first of five films this fall) and Gwyneth Paltrow reteam from The Talented Mr. Ripley to play Indiana Jones (real name: Joe Sullivan) and Lois Lane (real name: Polly Perkins) in the search of a mad scientist (once again, Olivier...that's kind of weird) who is sending killer robots and highly advanced planes into New York who are raiding power generators for...something. The film contains all of the same adventure trappings as a Jones film, but without a real background.

Think of Raiders. Hitler and Nazi Germany are trying to become the world power in the late teens of the 1900s. Hitler has been excavating numerous archeological sites to find the Ark of the Covenant, a piece of biblical warpower that supposedly would wipe out their conquests. Indiana Jones wants to find it for the thrill of adventure, the chance to be famous, maybe, to put it in a museum, and is essentially taking the side of the U.S. as the CIA funds his venture. On the side of Germany is another adventurer who is "in it for the money," (although we don't get the terrible, blunt line as when Bill Paxton refers to Cary Elwes in Twister) by the name of Belloq. In the subtext of the film, it's the Allied Powers versus the Third Reich. A grand adventure indeed. The finding of the Ark, along with the puzzles Indiana Jones must solve to find it, with all of the obstacles that incite good drama, made that film one of the best of all time.

Now we get Sky Captain and Entertainment Weekly wants to put it on "The Must List," going as far as saying its the birth of the popcorn film (as opposed to the "lesser" popcorn movie). Sorry, guys, Sky Captain is more a spectacle than bonafide event. The film makes even more of a mistake by not making Joe Sullivan the main character. He shares it with the reporter, Polly, and hence, our hero does not have the magnetism we are looking for, to assure us with his many skills that everything is going to be alright because he's on the job. Karen Allen, as Marion in Raiders, was a good character, but she was not in the spotlight. She was the "Jones girl," as much romantic fodder and a mere piece of the overall puzzle that a Bond girl is. Hell, she even has more of the spotlight than her predecessor Lois Lane did in all the Superman adventures.

It has genuinely good action moments, but without the similar weight that I have detailed from Raiders, there's not much of a chance you'll give a damn about whether they succeed or not. The bad guy's intentions even sound good--the only way they were able to continue to make it seem like his actions needed to be stopped was by inventing the grand old "end-of-the-world" scenario, as contrived as that concept has ever been. It's too bad, we could have had a true successor to Indiana Jones while waiting for Spielberg, Lucas, and Harrison Ford to finally have their slates clean at the same time to make the genuine article.

My Company

I'm working as an intern locally, and my company made the papers today. The two people pictured are the co-founders, and we work together daily.

More Titans

Did anyone else notice how wide open the receiver was in the end zone during the two point play at the end of the game? McNair overthrew him, as he did on several throws today; including, I think, the interception. But, I'm not worried yet, as the Jacksonville-Tennessee games are usually boring and low-scoring, and they did start 1-4 a few years ago. They'll get back on-track.

Same crap, different Sunday

Once again, the Titans were done in by stupid play. Crucial stops negated by penalties, especially that final drive with the offsides. And speaking of overeager, how about the pass interference play on a ball that the receiver had no chance to catch. That hurt...bad. I was in the middle of considering never watching the Titans again this season when I realized that they had been 1-4 a couple of years ago and got to the AFC Championship. They'll have to do something similar this year, but seriously, I was considering it, because I'm so weary of the penalties that stop drives or continue drives for the other team. This stuff is so old and tired.

Last Drive

On that last drive, the Titans D was over-eager, and that accounted for the 5 yard penalty resulting in a first down, and the fourth down and the touchdown where they over-ran the running back, letting them get the yard they needed. Sad.

Musings of a tired traveler

Back just this morning, drove all night from Chicago. Ugh. Slept until now, so I'm still a little groggy, but anxious to blog once again.

-Mixed feelings seeing that picture of Vokoun. Great to see him playing (hell, I'll always be a huge fan of his, regardless of where he plays). But just a visual smack to my Preds-fan face seeing our guy in another pro team's net. It's all well and good to think about "no hockey" and such, but to see photos like this one cuts a little deeper. Go on, Tommy, kick-ass. It's not your fault. We'll need you fresh and in top form in case the miracle happens and we get to keep our team.

-Did you all see where the Kings owner called the players' rep a "bald-faced liar" and said the lockout would last all year? Yeah, he's been fined heavily by Bettman for that little crossing of the party line. Gotta think, though, that he was fined because he said the truth, and Bettman's still trying to create the PR notion that they'll work things out (as opposed to the fine meaning that his views are unique). Thoughts?

-"Lost" may be the best pilot I've ever seen. From minute one I was gripped. I've been mulling a huge post about the show and why everyone should be watching it, but I'm just too darned tired to say much more than...."this show freaking rocks." It can go anywhere it chooses, and I for one will be along for the ride. I can only hope folks tuning in to Lost find it as gripping as I do and will maybe be inspired to finally check out Alias (which is one of the best shows around, and a personal favorite, though it struggles constantly with ratings). Anyone catch it?

-"The Wire" is back on HBO. Don't be fooled by reviews that tell you how hard it is to pick-up if you've never watched it. Granted it's hard--ask Chris, who picked it up in Season Two--but it is so freaking worth it. It really is a novel on screen. Let it soak, and you'll find a richness no other show can deliver. Chris must have watched at least 6 episodes last season before getting hooked. But I remember with vivid recall how hooked he became once they had him on the line. My very favorite tv show ever. The DVD for Season One comes out October 12th, so it's easy to catch up now. If you've ever watched Law and Order, Homicide, NYPD Blue, Boomtown, CSI, the movie Traffic, or any cop-related show and like it....you're missing Nirvana here with this program. Thoughts?

-Fantasy football. I suck at it. I hate sucking at things. But, man, do I love football.

-Someone's stealing from me. Either a random hacker who grabbed my info. off the net, or a company I owe money to that no longer has permission to withdraw from my account. I'm not sure which, but either way I'm more than a grand in the hole now. Affidavids will be filled out Monday morning as the bank begins to try and get me my moolah back. Regardless of that thing's outcome...I'm still up a freaking creek for the current time being...which is unfortunate. Raman noodles here I come.

-Weddings are fun for people related to the couple, friends of the couple, and people in love. For everyone else, they are mostly I chore i think. That's just my observation from this weekend. I had fun. But of course I'm friends with the couple, and was there with my girlfriend. Saw a lot of people who seemed to slip further into depression right before my eyes.

-Absolutely love the notion of an L&N Line hockey outing. I'm definitely going to see the Admirals, so count me in. That'll be a lot of fun, and really cheap too. Tootoo will be there, and so will I.

-Glad to see Jason at the Den isn't holding grudges any more than we are. Seems the dust has cleared and we'll be able to blog and discuss and commiserate with him. I have decided my next response to anyone I perceive as attacking me will be to just say, "whatever." Unless it's Chris, and then it's freaking on. That guy's fair game. Except that we almost never disagree, he and I.

-Must eat now. And then sleep more. I'm anxious to get back to blogging up a storm. Good to be back in the internet access. Hope you guys are well.

Back to Depressing Reality

Vokoun playing for Znojmo.



Anybody know how to follow the Czech league? I'd like to know how he's doing over there. Hope he stays sharp, just in case we ever get to see him again.

Oh yes, one last thing. I was thinking about visiting this weekend, but now am planning to come down for the Milwaukee game. Who else is going? We could have a blogger get together or something. And, hopefully whenever we score, Gnash can slide down into a big mug of beer, Brewers style! If not, then I'll take on that duty... for Milwaukee.

UPDATE: Hat tip to the Lady Predator

Glad That's Over

For those of you who haven't seen it, the Predators' Den - L&N Line controversy ends with everyone in good spirits, and everyone still sick of the lockout. See this post, and make sure you read KW's comment about Nashville getting stereotyped, which I agree with totally.

National coverage of Louisville continues to fixate on horses, which doesn't seem to bother anyone, limited as it is.

UPDATE: Eric McErlain of Off Wing Opinion mentions the post as well. Nice to see the big hockey blogger taking an interest in our Preds. I emailed him once when I thought he had insulted our team, and he made sure to say that he had not. A good blog with well-deserved popularity.

Avenged!

So, revenge doesn't happen in every situation, but it can happen, but when it happens it might not actually help you, but when it does someone's going to write a column about it, and when it doesn't happen it's going to be ignored, and Jedis can't feel revenge but nerds can, and the Archers of Loaf song "Revenge" is pretty good if you're in the mood.

And, dude, Braveheart was all about revenge, and he kicked all of their asses! So there, revenge exists... but you have to be Scottish. And if it's not Scottish... it's crap.

The Braves clinch the division again

This was amazing in 1993 when the Braves won their 3rd division in a row, then in the NL West, and now, it's completely out of the realm of imagination that the Braves have done it 13 straight times, 10 now in the NL East.

And with a completely different kind of club, too. This team is downright scary to watch, but they somehow pull through. The names of Smoltz, Maddux, Glavine, and Avery are now the likes of Wright, Hampton, Ortiz, Thomson, and Byrd. I have no idea what their chances are in the playoffs. I can only hope that the young blood that is on this team meshes with the old, and they can pull through and win a completely improbable World Series.

There are a lot of other teams that are clearly better than them this year, but they've been in that role before and it didn't get them anything. I'm going to have fun watching the baseball playoffs this year, there is no disgrace if the Braves lose it this time.

Shaun of the Dead

1. Shaun of the Dead (Director: Edgar Wright)

Possibly the funniest comedy of the year so far, Shaun of the Dead gets its laughs mainly from the fact that, as zombies slowly begin to take over, hardly anyone notices.

The film is about Shaun (Simon Pegg, who also co-scripted with Wright) and his failing life revolving around his bad job, his poor decisions that lead to the breakup of his girlfriend, and his drinking adventures with his best friend. The movie starts off playing like that's going to be the whole story, then those familiar, slow-walking, moaning creatures start popping up. At first, the laughs come from the complete obliviousness--Shaun walks through his town, and zombies or dead people are in the background. One scene has him walk from his apartment to the store and back to his apartment, and all the while he misses that nearly the whole town is affected, he misses the blood all over the place, and even doesn't notice that the storekeeper is dead.

Then, when Shaun finally realizes the horror, some laughs go into the realm of sick humor as he and his friend try to kill the zombies. Eventually, Shaun faces his failed life by way of the zombie attack, and there's even some serious moments in the film that frankly, didn't seem to belong.

Director Wright certainly infuses this with some pseudo-Raimi style and technique you rarely see in comedy these days. The writing is often times brilliant. Not a complete success, but better than most and worthwhile.

You're Welcome

I hope you enjoyed some of those titles as much as I did. Maybe I'll work on a post about revenge in superhero comic books next. Or in Tori Amos songs. Or historical wars. There is no end to the depths to which we can go to fully explore the impact of revenge.

By the way, I wasn't trying to mock anybody there with my little rant. Just trying to be humorous. I, for the record, think we're all correct...which is, of course, impossible.

Thank you

Thank you, KW, for illustrating even more evidence to the cause. See, the movies aren't immune, either.

Revenge of the Blogger!

Okay, let�s talk revenge. I have done hours of research, and think I have definitive proof, finally.

We start with Revenge of the Jedi, a title that had to be changed to Return of the Jedi. Why? Well, Luke�s only real action of consequence in the film is to return. Also, something about how good jedi cannot feel revenge. So clearly, revenge did not play a part in the outcome of the Battle for Endor.

How about Aliens? In the first movie the aliens had clearly kicked our butts, killing off all the crew but one, sending her home packing, with her tail between her legs. So in the second one, now Earth is pissed! We send a whole team of machine gunners to kill all the aliens. (Why, by the way, have we mastered interplanetary travel, but still use machine guns?! Shouldn�t there be VapoGuns and ZapperGuns!) But does the revenge help us? Not at all. The aliens win again, killing them off one by one, leaving Ripley to take off from the planet, unfortunately with an alien on board. So, revenge�.again not a factor in the outcome.

How about Kill Bill? She wanted revenge on all the people who tried to kill her. So sure, she kills them all, but not until after she gets rapped, beaten, cut, shot with a shotgun, mocked, and punched. AND, at the movie�s end, she�s crying on the bathroom floor�clearly distraught over the immediate need to learn childcare skills. I mean, what bad-ass karate hottie wants to be saddled with dirty diapers, bed wetting, allowances, curfew�s, and all the other horrors of child rearing? So, it�s a lose/lose here. Here is where we learn that even if revenge helps you win�.you still lose.

Now let�s look at only movies with the word �revenge� (or some variation of it) in their title, thereby claiming that revenge will play a role in the outcome. All of these are movies that demonstrate revenge being of no help at all in the outcome, and at best helping you break even. They are all also real movies, in case you doubt my passion for research: Jaws: The Revenge, Revenge of the Pink Panther, Halloweentown II: Kalabar�s Revenge, Storm Chasers: Revenge of the Twister, Pinocchio�s Revenge, Revenge of the Radioactive Reporter, Revenge of the Ninja, SpongeBob SquarePants: Revenge of the Flying Dutchman, Thirst for Revenge, Pancho�s Revenge, The Invisible Man�s Revenge, G.I.Joe: The Revenge of Cobra, Revenge of the Cheerleaders, Phantom of the Mall: Eric�s Revenge, Dead Man�s Revenge, Revenge of the Unhappy Campers, Revenge of the Red Barron, Inspector Gadget�s Last Case: Claw�s Revenge, Emmanuelle�s Revenge (ooh, la-la), La Revanche des mortes vivantes, Revenge of the Shogun Women, Prison Planet 3: The Revenge, The Chambermaid�s Revenge, The Washerwoman�s Revenge, Snow Queen�s Revenge, Revenge of the Teenage Vixens from Outer Space, Revenge of the Stolen Stars, Sorority Girls� Revenge, Revenge of the Virgins, Oranges: Revenge of the Eggplant, Blade Rider: Revenge of the Indian Nations, Deadly Daphne�s Revenge, Revenge of the Whale, Revenge of the Red Balloon, The Onion Magnate�s Revenge, T-Bag and the Revenge of the T-Set, Paperhanger�s Revenge, The Squaw�s Revenge, Revenge of the Middle-Aged Woman, Psycho Charlie�s Revenge, The Folly of Revenge, The Futility of Revenge, The Hypnotist�s Revenge, Revenge of Bigfoot, Cuusingura: The Revenge of the Masterless, Plow Boy�s Revenge, Aunt Betty�s Revenge, A Surgeon�s Revenge (ouch!), Skeletor�s Revenge, Double Dragon II: The Revenge, Revenge, Chorus Girl�s Revenge, The Butler�s Revenge, The Midget�s Revenge, and A Christmas Revenge.

Now, that�s a lot of movies. But there are ten-times as many. I wanted to list so many to show how much overwhelming evidence there is that revenge doesn�t help you win. And also because lots of those titles are funny.

I can think of only one movie with �Revenge� in the title where the revenge-taker actually wins�..Revenge of the Nerds. There�s actually a whole series of the nerds revenge, but we�ll count it as one film for our debate. The nerds have no skills, compared to their cool counterparts. So clearly revenge was what put them over the hump in being able to beat their foes.

There you have it. Definitive and lopsided data supporting the claim that revenge doesn�t really help anyone win a battle. Especially if the revenge-taker is a bad guy.

OK, OK

I did say I was going to shut up, but I will offer a study I have made, since we're looking for actual proof. I have delivered real games and stats to back up my thoughts on the revenge factor, now I will go into downright exhaustive detail, not knowing where it may lead (I could end up wrong, who knows). My most compelling argument will come later after I mention some brief examples.

First, I mentioned 2 games from this very season. Colts in a revenge game versus Patriots, who had won 2 games from them previously, including the AFC Championship (both close games and could have gone either way). Titans, just this past week, revenge game versus the Colts, who had won 2 games previously (one was a blowout, the other was a draining loss at home).

The Titans lost 5 games in a row to the Ravens, divisional matchups and playoffs, before finally, barely beating them last year in the playoffs. At least 3 of the 4 games after the first loss could be considered revenge games.

The Jaguars went 15-3 one season. All three losses, including the AFC Championship (where revenge would have been sweet for the Jags), were to the Titans.

Tampa Bay embarassed the Eagles in the 2002 NFC Championship, and still beat them on week 1 of the next season.

New England beat Pittsburgh in the 2001 AFC Championship, beat them on week 1 of the next season.

I would consider a revenge game any game in which a team got embarassed or were beat on a big stage, or lost on a controversial call or a last-minute play. The teams have to be evenly matched, and the revenge game takes place at the proper time. So, I'm not going to find stats for Denver and Tampa Bay because they rarely play each other. There are, of course, teams who got their revenge. I am fair, and will list the ones I can find.

Oakland lost to the Patriots in the infamous "tuck-rule" game of the 2001 playoffs, and then played them later in the 2002 season and beat them 27-20. I will add, however, by the time Oakland got around to playing the Pats, both teams were heading in opposite directions.

Buffalo lost to the Titans in the infamous "Music City Miracle" game of the 1999 playoffs, and then played them in the first game of the 2000 season and beat them (Boy, if Eddie George catches an easy pass, though, there's no revenge).

You can, if you want, include the games within the season where two teams play each other twice or more. You will find much more "revenge" in that, but they rarely can be considered revenge games under those circumstances. You usually find the "embarassment" reason for revenge here, like the 31-0 thumping that Buffalo gave New England last year, which New England returned in kind later in the season.

I actually bothered to look at all of the matches-rematches of the 2003 season, counted up the tally, and man am I a sick person for doing that.

There were 56 matchups in the NFL last season (not regarding factors of home-field, or whether the teams were equal, and certainly not factoring in what I believe to be a true revenge game--but if we want to say a revenge game is any game where one team has lost and wants to win the next time those two teams play) that would later result in a rematch (112 total games), 6 of them were regular season games that later resulted in a playoff matchup. Of those 56, 26 teams got their revenge, meaning 30 did not (in other words, teams seeking revenge had a record of 26-30). In the playoffs, only 2 teams got their revenge (Indy lost to Denver late in the season and then won in the playoffs, Carolina lost to Philly then won the NFC Championship) compared to 4 who did not (or a record of 2-4; the four teams seeking revenge and did not get it were Seattle vs. Green Bay, Tennessee vs. New England, Indianapolis vs. New England, and Green Bay vs. Philly). There were no teams who matched up more than twice.

I believe the whole thing is a wash, which is why it rarely registers on the radar as a good reason to think one team will beat another. That's the point. Not whether the idea of wanting revenge exists or not, but whether it, all things being equal, gives a team an advantage. I think the examples above show, in great detail, that it does not.

Hero, Wimbledon, Mr.3000

Well, I really caught up with some movies today. I haven't gone on a binge like this in a long time. These are all retro reviews. Hero opened August 27 here, and the other two opened just last weekend, so I'm not terribly off.

1. Hero (Director: Zhang Yimou)

A nice little martial arts movie, with all the wire-fu and grace of Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon. Just like that martial "arty" film, there's much more on the minds of the filmmakers than just pretty fights in stellar backgrounds. We have a movie about honor and love, how those facets of life weigh in on important decisions, surrounded by a tale told by Nameless (Jet Li, who's finally in a movie that shows dignity, although this movie was filmed and shown to Chinese audiences before the living turd Cradle 2 The Grave), who relates a story of the killing of three assassins to the king in the Qin dynasty (Daoming Chen). The king has been heavily guarded under an assassination watch, and Nameless is only allowed to advance towards the king, first 100 paces, then as reward gets as close as 10 paces, with only a bevy of flickering candles between them. The king doesn't believe the entire story, and relates what he believes, and then, with the truth coming ever closer, Nameless fills in the gaps.

It's that interesting dynamic that makes Hero a worthwhile film, even though there's a lot of pretentiousness in this thing, a lot of slow motion and a fight in autumn leaves that looks a lot like the fabulous tree fight in Crouching Tiger, made all the more similar by the presence of ultra-babe Zhang Ziyi. There's a lot of stock period-piece behavior, like knowing one's place and having an honor code. The fights are kinda fun, but it's getting sad when I can look at fighters jump on water and think, "I've seen that before." It's the weight of the story that pulls it all together, and you'll be able to get past some tiresome aspects. Solid.

Another plus: Hard-Boiled's Tony Leung, who played the undercover cop, plays an assassin with the moral center of the story.

2. Wimbledon (Director: Richard Loncraine)

Loncraine is not a well-known name. He only has two credits that people may take interest in. There's Richard III and part 2 of the "Band of Brothers" miniseries. This film comes with the packaging of advertising the producers, who did Notting Hill and Bridget Jones's Diary.

Paul Bettany steps into a role that probably would have been Hugh Grant if it didn't require Grant to look athletic (and he may be too old). Bettany is best known for John Nash's imaginary friend Charles Herman in A Beautiful Mind and Dr. Stephen Maturin in Master and Commander. He was also in a movie I still consider one of the best of the year, Dogville. Bettany has better acting chops than Grant, but Grant is a better comedian. The film also stars Kirsten Dunst as a hotshot female tennis star who of course becomes romantic fodder for Bettany, or the other way around, and they are a winning couple, but there's a lot missing from this movie.

First off, the secondary characters add almost nothing even though they are good in their roles. Jon Favreau plays a sports agent, and all that implies. Sam Neill plays the father of said female star, and of course emerges as a conflict, but not much of one. Another thing that's missing, until the Wimbledon final, is the true sense of sport. Sports movies are best when they have compelling sports situations, and we miss a lot of Peter Cort's (Bettany) march through Wimbledon even though this is supposed to be an amazing feat for an aging star. Hell, the movie's called Wimbledon, not Love At First Deuce or Advantage, Love or some other crappy romantic title that implies sports. There are decent, Notting Hill-esque stabs at humor, but it ultimately fails.

3. Mr. 3000 (Director: Charles Stone III)

Stone is known best for his Whasssssuuuup Budweiser commercials and he's been getting steady film work ever since. He directed the surprisingly good Drumline and he did another movie that got good reviews but wasn't seen by anyone (including me) in Paid in Full.

Here's the first movie Bernie Mac has ever had to carry, and unfortunately it's PG-13. It's censored Mac, and it contains really none of the good humor of his TV show. Bernie Mac gets more laughs from one scene in Booty Call than in this whole movie. It's a shame, because Mac has shown a knack for hard-edged humor and he's regulated to playing this aging, selfish baseball star. If you were to switch his love for the camera for a drug addiction, then this would be a drama. That's what I felt like seeing this.

Bernie Mac plays Stan Ross, a baseball player who, once he gets 3000 hits, retires, figuring the Hall of Fame will come calling. However, nine years later, he has yet to make it. Then, the Hall of Fame discovers that three hits in one game that was ended due to a curfew rule were counted twice. So, with 2997 hits, Ross tries to get back into the majors at 47. While there he begins to teach the younger players lessons, while he himself learns his own.

There are a couple of unrealistic things about this.

First off, the comeback takes place in September and the Brewers play the Tigers. Maybe earlier in the year they play them, maybe in 1997 they play the Tigers that late in the season, being in the AL, but not in 2004.

Stat-hungry baseball would never miss something as glaring as three hits extra on someone's batting record.

Ross is able to convert a hotshot player and team cancer into a clubhouse leader after one BS conversation.

We're supposed to believe this sorry-ass team can make up 7 games in the standings, just to get to 3rd place, by winning 11. Maybe so, but couldn't we have had more room for that?

A plus: Angela Bassett, whom film has missed for several years, is beautiful as ever and turns in a nice performance as an ESPN reporter who is also the love interest. Just like Wimbledon, however, where's the true sense of sport? It's lost among all the other diversions. Maybe there's a point there, but it rings false.

Guiltless Gourmet baked guiltless carbs taste like cardboard, and I'm not saying that as a cliche. They actually do. With red pepper on it.

And, years later, "Hyper Enough" by Superchunk still rocks.

Additional Points

I was going to try to defend myself, and have been thinking about it for the last two days. But then I realize that I can't. It was a gut call, and there was no logic behind it. A logical arguement is hard, then. I think that this we're really arguing past each other here. I agree with most of your football related points, such as that the Titans dominated the first half. There's no doubt they did. But, they messed it up.

-We all seem to agree that emotions play a role, particularly inside the game. I think, from personal experience, that getting mad affects different people in different ways, or even the same person in different ways. I remember once getting cleated close to the groin for no good reason in a soccer game (we were down 7-2!), and then scoring three goals in the next ten minutes or so (still lost). But, at other points I lost my cool, and it hurt my play badly. It's a matter of how well you direct that anger; do you use it to focus your play, or does it frustrate your mind?

-I think revenge is a factor (although not last Sunday), and Chris does not. I also think that motivation to win in a week after you were defeated in a big game plays a factor here, too, and that was in play Sunday. I think we'll agree to disagree here, respectfully.

-Interesting point on the Colts lack of "time of possession", KW. I'll have to watch that.

-Dyson looked bad, and not just on that face mask play. I mean, at many points in the game he was just beat.

-I'm beginning to think that, on a long drive in the early part of the game, you should simply kick a field goal on fourth and short. What a downer it was to see them come up with a huge drive like that and get no points, so early in the game! The Colts got a big surge from that. The downside is rarely thought about on a failed fourth and short, but it can be a huge negative for a team. And three points would have felt pretty good.

-I'm troubled by Brown's lack of stats in the later downs, and in the second half. But, then again, he troubles me in general. But, man, was he fun to watch in the first half! There were so many times I knew he was going down, and he didn't! I guess he's like a lot of other backs, but I'm not used to that on my team. Indeed, I'm excited and troubled by the man at the same time. Needs more thought. Watching Eddie play like Eddie in the afternoon Cowboys game, I have no clue what the 'boys saw in him. All he does is run forward until he hits someone, and he's tackled. I could do that. Some of our readers could do that. Of course, we'd be bruised as all hell in the morning, but we could. And so could a lot of other people, many of them riding the bench for the Cowboys.

-Why am I no good at fantasy football? I usually do well in baseball, but football always eludes me. 0-3 combined in my two leagues.

Good Discussion

I'm in no shape to blog really, after a terribly long day. We took a two and a half hour test in class. Problem was, they only gave us one and a half hours to take it. That, plus I made a small mistake at work, and had to talk to a lot of people about all sorts of issues. Really stressful day.

Still, I ought to say something at least. Let's see if I can get some of my thoughts down (when I had a chance, I was thinking about emotions and stats and the like during the day). I don't think yesterday was a revenge day, I think it was a day where the Colts wanted to show that the opener was a fluke. Not that that was the only reason. Also, you said revenge doesn't matter, and I disagree. But really, we have no way to prove that statistically. I wish we did, because then we'd know for sure. Maybe the stat-heavy Football Outsiders can answer that someday.

I think the two teams are pretty much evenly matched, and that is what led to thinking about emotion. It plays a factor, but I don't think it is the only factor - it's just one. Just as home field is a factor and all that. But, each season has an ebb and flow, and I just don't see the Titans as a juggarnaut that can get up two games this early. That was worth a few points to me in the prediction game.

I agree with the playaction thing. It seems like they're missing a piece, something that doesn't quite get them over the hump. As good of a coaching staff as they have, they just seem to come up a bit short in their playcalling sometimes. That might be what's missing between them and a Super Bowl.

Looking forwards to the fantasy baseball finals vs. Chris. Did you know that I can't cut Prior? He's on the "no cut list", even though he sucks this year. Means I can't get another player. But, then I go and start him tonight, and he rocks. Still, I'd rather have someone else. Too bad.

There, that's all coming up quickly, with little editing. I'll retry tommorrow, I hope. Man, we're bloggin' up a storm, aren't we!

You right, Dog

That title doesn't tell you anything about this post. I think that's funny.

You're right man. But I hope you don't shut up about it. I think it's the perfect example of great discussion without personal feelings and anger (really, the opposite of the whole lockout debacle). I wrote some of what I wrote hoping and expecting you to rebut...maybe just because I'm bored at work and wanted something to do and something to read. So I hope you don't think...that I think....that you're just going for the last word. Not at all. (It should be noted I'd gladly let you have the last word if that were actually the goal...because your last word would be better and more entertaining than mine). I was actually planning for you to respond.

I think you're right on the money there with the whole "Titans lost confidence" thing. Absolutely. You could see it. Frustration is as inescapable human condition as there is.

And you're right on the thing about play-action...no debate there. I'm with you. I'm in. Buy me five shares.

I don't really think I even disagree with you about any of it, and I think I may just be writing to have something to do. Oh well.

Really what shakes out of this debate in my eyes is that prediction of games is impossible. If you predict on confidence and emotion, the numbers will get you. If you predict on just numbers, the turnovers and mental intangibles will get you. If you use both sides...then someone on the team will break a fibia and you're still screwed. I mean, predictions (and those people working for big sports publications whose job it is to make those predictions) are just silly, really. It's fun to do, because if you're like Mike and you get it right on as far as outcome...you feel cool. And your friends have to buy you ice creams or soda pops. But really, we get it wrong more often than not.

You can say it's because of parity in the league that no prediction is too valid. But I think it's because these people are individuals. You can do all the research and predicting and emotional guesswork that you want, but if one safety or linebacker on one team is having marital strife at home (due to a cheating spouse, or lack of "getting action") then they'll knock off somebody's head, maybe cause a fumble or injury, and likely play with much more gusto than normal....unless they're depressed about it, in which case they might be sluggish and allow a big pass play or run. And those human, individual mental concerns and states....are not written about. They're not known by us.

Sometimes if traffic is bad on my way to work, I'm in a grumpy mood all day. I don't answer the phone with as much pep. I don't get as much design work done because I'm distracted. If my girlfriend sends me an e-mail, though, sometimes I perk right up even if the day has been awful. My finances are a constant concern for me, always on my mind. Sometimes I'm happy that I'll have enough money for that new Xbox game. And sometimes I'm upset because I can't afford lunch. My point is, all these guys are individuals. At most, the glimpse we get into their mental state is based on contract talks, fights or scuffles with coaches or players, or in Andre Rison's case we know his house burned down because his loco lady didn't get enough tlc. But the true mental state is always unknown. Sure, they're pros, so they learn how to turn stuff on or off to get game-ready. But they're human. They're prone to emotion, and it's fundamental to our being as humans to be affected by emotion. We all have emotion, and we all react to identical emotions in different ways. Verdict? Unpredictable.

That's all I was trying to say. But just to keep things going I'll say this: "You're totally wrong, man. Titans don't need play-action, and the Colts only won because they didn't want to drop to an 0-2 record." There. Take that. Man, I'm good.

Also, just heard on the radio that Edge has a hamstring injury and will miss some time. Freakin' great! (that was sarcasm...I'm actually not happy that happened.)

Alright, one more thing and then I'll shut up

I don't want to make this appear like I need the last word or anything, because I don't. I'm confident in my reasonings about the way I think, and I know that other people in the world believe another way. It's fine, it's what makes the world great, and I don't want to be a robot like everyone else.

First off, I think I may be unclear on the way I think about emotion. I think emotion is something that certainly motivates people to act in certain ways. I think every point that people make as far as "good" emotion is concerned, though, ties directly to confidence, which I explained is something I do believe in, I believe in as much as the hundreds of concrete statistics I have thrown down on these pages.

The Colts have confidence, and why shouldn't they? The Big Three are all good, and what makes them great is they make other players better--I don't think that's an argument, what makes an athlete great. They know they can score at will, there is no denying it. They can score 31 points any day, and so I have a hard time believing the motivation factor for that simple reason. Even when things are going good, they've strung together 8 wins in a row, and they're playing the Arizona Cardinals, they can score 31 or more, and there's no other motivation than to simply win the damn game (well, except maybe losing to the Arizona Cardinals...).

The Titans had confidence. They scored on the opening drive with no problems. Before a lot of people could sit down they had a 7-0 lead. What destructed their confidence was the fundamental lack of a true scheme. They knew they could run the ball, but they didn't ponder the what ifs of the world, like a 3rd and inches. They figured that should such a situation arise, the same things that got them to the 3rd and inches would bring them 1st and 10 on the next play.

When it didn't, the Titans lost confidence (all that work, for nothing). The defense started to lose confidence in the offense (if the offense is going to sputter, we're going to have to increase our effort...but against the Colts...sigh), and when the defense made some serious blunders (Andre Dyson, the face-mask and interference on the same play, 30 yard penalty, personal foul calls, etc.) they began to lose confidence in themselves (geez...no matter what we do, they're going to drive the ball on us...even if we stop them. That hurts). After that Dyson penalty, the Colts would score on almost every drive after that. I think that's no coincidence. The Titans had held them to 3 points until then and the beginning of the second half, afterwards it was 28 points.

I do remember the missed catches in the end zone, and it's another string of missed opportunities that I have no argument against. I have seen both Mason and Bennett make those catches. It further illustrates the dominance the Titans had before the scoring opportunities. In another universe, there are two extra touchdowns on the board because Mason or Bennett make their catch on one drive and Nick Harper doesn't steal the ball away from Mason in another--there's another lesson in the annals of confidence (even if we get the ball in the end zone, we're not going to catch it).

The previous week, I heard, I believe it was Rocky Boiman or somebody like that, in answer to a question about "getting mad, does that help you?" say, "No. Getting mad can hurt you. I'm just out there having fun."

I think another area of argument here that gets lost is that all of this comes down to predicting the final outcome of a game. I wasn't wrong about what would happen in the game on the points I covered. Had I known about this inability to cash in on short-yardage, I would have picked the Colts, and would have picked probably more than a 2-TD victory for them. Emotion is as impossible to predict as turnovers or 30-yard face-mask-interference penalties, so how my argument boils it down is that those things usually cancel each other out (certainly, there are factors that allow you to predict turnover ratio and penalties, and whether that should matter, but only if a team is prone to them--the Titans are certainly prone to penalties). Surely, the Titans didn't want to look at the prospect of losing to and being behind the Colts, a divisional rival, at home, this early in the season, and the Colts didn't want to go 0-2--those principles cancel each other out. To say one motivating factor trumps another is the age-old apples and oranges debate, even if you believe in any other factor than simply winning.

I hope I don't come on too strong, but this is, ironically, a subject I'm passionate about. It just sounds wrong to my ears to hear "revenge," "they don't want to go 0-2," and so forth as an underlying factor. I'm not asking for people to stop, so if in upcoming weeks you guys want to analyze any particular game and include some basis of emotion, I won't reply unkindly, I'll just give you my stats-driven take on everything.

In fact, I won't write about this subject again after today. Everyone, feel free to give me your reasonings on why these things matter, have the last word, and so forth. I am genuinely interested to know why people believe these things. The key question, is why.

KW's Take on the big game

For what it's worth:

1. I don't think we can take all credit away from the Colts D. Granted, they don't deserve much credit...but they did make a bunch of key/big stops when they mattered. We can say they knew what the Titans were calling, but they still had to make the stop. Consider this: Chris Brown rushed for 152 yards on first and second-down carries. He rushed for a big fat zero yards on third or fourth down carries. That tells me that the Colts D at least gets a little credit for stepping up on the big downs.
2. I think Chris is right on, at least regarding the Titan's need for play-action. Why bother running your back for that many yards if you're never going to use it to set up the pass?! Makes no sense. And I also think he's right on about Peyton's use of it. The Colts absolutely thrive on the play-action, and do quite well since Peyton has really no equal in the NFL for his ability to fake. Maybe McNair sucks at faking the handoff. It's possible.
3. The Titans definitely did more wrong than the Colts D did right, that's for sure. But let's not ignore the fabulous interception by Nick Harper. If you saw that...you have to give him credit. He made a huge play to stop a touchdown and get a turnover when the game was dead-even at 17-all.
4. Credit the Colts Offensive line, and discredit the Titans Defensive line...but there was virtually no penetration by the Titan's D line. No sacks I don't think. Hardly any "rushes" or "pressures" for them either. Jevon Kearse anyone? Maybe. Hall made some really nice plays, and Kevin Carter came up big a couple times. But Peyton had all day back there. And you can't give that guy that much time.
5. Also regarding the Titan's D: First time since 2000 that an opposing team has had over 100 yards rushing in the Colosium. Last year's best team at stopping the run isn't quite as good this year at doing that. Not an omen, or anything like that....but a key point.
6. Regarding the whole emotion thing. I still think it played a part. See, I don't think the Colts won because of it...but I think the Titans got frustrated. I think the Colts stayed calm. Which emotions or where they came from (not wanting to go 0-2, revenge, whatever) doesn't matter. But emotion is a card that matters in these NFL games. I just don't think it can be predicted. It's much more of a "hindsight" kind of thing.
7. I know the big stops on fourth downs stopped Titans' drives that were looking good. And it's easy to assume they'd have scored and the game would have been closer had those fourth downs been converted. But.....let's again remember the big Harper interception (McNair even says Harper made a big play, so does Mason) and also the big misses by the Titans earlier (Drew Bennett dropping a ball in the endzone? Gotta catch it, and Bennett said so in the paper today too). So there's no givens in football. Just like last week, when I wanted to believe the Colts would have won had they not fumbled twice or had the interception...there's still no guarantee. Patriots might have made a big stop. You never know. Colts certainly made many big stops, so who's to say they wouldn't have done it again? Or who's to say the Titan's scoring more wouldn't have led to even more big plays by Peyton to keep it close? Just because they moved the ball well, owned the clock, and dominated with their first/second-down running game doesn't mean they dominated in converting all game.
8. Ball control/Time of possession is usually a good indicator, but not always. That's especially true when the Colts are playing, because their offense is so potent that they often score quickly, not possessing the ball long at all. Titans obviously had chances to maintain control of the game. But they didn't.
9. Remember that game a couple years ago when they ran the QB sneak on the one yard line and there was a confusing flag thrown, and the refs called a do-over. What did the Titans do? Same exact play. Was it stopped this time? Yes. Yes it was. They have had this problem of being predictable on short-yardage and fourth-downs for quite some time.
10. I loved that game. It was exciting. Had lead changes. Had big plays. And proved that Edge and Brown are two stud runners. Titans don't need to panic yet. They get Calico back soon and that should help. But heed the advice of Chris, oh Jeff Fisher, and implement a play-action ASAP. Otherwise, you might as well just tell the other team your call at the line before the snap.

It's fantasy delirium!

Well, the Any Given Sunday league is beginning to look like last year's big league for me, winning the first game and my team being impressive, to watching an injury-riddled, underachieving team take it on the chin the following week (and probably weeks to come). The L & N Line Rebellion league is interesting because the scores aren't out of control--and I figured out why. I accidentally made receiving yards 1 point for every 20 yards, so there may be an unwanted balancing act, although some guys underachieved this week so we may still see a week where someone has 175-200 points. I've also been won over by the area of fractions of a point, because it's ridiculous that an RB gets 8 points for 80 yards (and all the way up to 89 yards) while another RB gets 7 for 79 yards. Learning curve--I made some mistakes. It's my first time as commissioner, so don't go Selig-hater on me.

Anyway, this post was mainly created for the reasons that I'm entering into my first fantasy championship, in baseball, against Mike no less, who's the defending champ from last year. I've been first in the regular season of fantasy sports many times (including this year), but no championship. There is an actual 1-2 matchup in this year's championship. My guys scared me a few days ago in the 2nd round of the playoffs when I suddenly slipped from being ahead to being 9-7 behind, but then they kicked ass and I went on cruising to the 13-3 victory.

Come on now...

You can't honestly say that, right? I mean, did you see the game or just the score? I know Louisville often doesn't get Titan games.

If I saw just the score, I would be making the same claims as you. The fact is, the Titans dominated this game completely until there was a situation for short yardage--and that's where they messed up. Uninspired play calling did them in. If you saw this game, you cannot deny it.

And if revenge is a factor, here's a case of where it isn't, because the Colts had won 2 games previously, and hence, the Titans should have been in full revenge mode, taking their revenge out on the Colts, and the score would have been reversed. And sure, why not give you another example just one week ago--the Colts lost 2 games to the Patriots including the AFC Championship and still couldn't beat them on week 1 of this season.

Have you ever seen Mystery Men, the not-all-that-entertaining superhero comedy starring Ben Stiller? He's this hero called Mr. Furious, where apparently his power is to get into a huge rage. Obviously, since he has no other powers than that, he just makes a big fool of himself trying to kill bad guys. That's what I think of when I hear anyone from sports analysists to first-time callers mention this emotional tool.

The Colts won this game because they had a better plan, especially in the second half, and executed it better. The Titans lost because their plan was great but had a deadly fault. The fact that the offense played this uninspired, non-playaction game while Chris Brown was able to run all over the place is downright criminal. You know why the Colts had a better plan? The use of that playaction pass. They did it almost every play, and the Titans D couldn't handle it, and then just at the right time, they'd give it to Edge and he'd run gangbusters because the D was confused. I guarantee to you, putting my left nut on EBay, if the Titans had implemented a little deception into this game, no amount of motivation for not being 0-2 would have helped the Colts yesterday, because they couldn't stop anything, and it would have been closer to 42-24 or so the other way around.

Unfortunately, the Colts won this game, and all those people who believe in the "motivation" factor got reinforced for the wrong reasons. I would believe in it, too, if I didn't see the evidence right in front of my eyes.

Want to read a Manning quote that backs me up? Read it here.

Here's David Climer's article in The Tennessean that repeats my reasonings. Click here.

Prophecy... Fulfilled!

If you read the last paragraph of this post, I nailed it. And I stand by my reasons. I thought there was little chance the Colts would lose this game. I think that when you feel all week that you MUST win, you have a steel back, and I didn't think the Titans could easily face that. Okay, so no stats here (not that I'm deriding stats), but I strongly feel that emotions, such as revenge, determination and fear, play a strong role in football.

So there, I'm tooting my own horn. But I'd still rather have had the W.

MMM...can I have a second helping?

Well, I was wrong. But for different reasons.

Here's what I was right about:

Edgerrin James would be able to run on the Titans defense (21 rush, 124 yards, 2 TD)
Steve McNair would be able to throw effectively (25/39, 273 yards)
Chris Brown would be able to run on the Indy defense (26 rush, 152 yards, 1 TD)

Here's what I was wrong about:

Peyton Manning would be challenged. He was not, and he only got sacked once on a botched play, and he was able to throw to whoever he wanted to.

Cause and effect: Here's where I got incensed at the Titans offense. This box score looks like those coulda, shoulda, woulda games played against the Ravens awhile back.

Time of possession: Titans, 34:55. Colts: 25:05. Ten minutes more time with the ball, and they had Chris Brown running 152 yards, Steve McNair throwing for 273 (better than Manning), and where did they lose it?

Short yardage situations, point blank. The big one was, at the Colts 3, a 4th and inches that apparently the Titans coaching staff thought the Colts wouldn't completely stack their defense for. Several 3rd and 1 plays were ran with the same thought. The Colts were losing the battle up front because they could not stop anyone...until they knew what was coming, of course. There are at least 3 such situational moments in the game and they ran Chris Brown on all of them. Who could blame them, right? Brown was torching their defense--but you can't run when the defense knows without a doubt you are coming.

Somewhere in a Titans playbook is a page that has never been hit by sunshine or a flood light or a desk lamp. That page contains information on how to run a playaction pass.

Could I, as a Titans fan, just once see a guy running 152 yards for the day, to set up this fabulous, underused play? Clearly, without any doubt, the Titans would have had huge numbers running this play because the Colts were thinking run on all of them. They couldn't stop anything, except that.

I believe the defense started to deflate after all that, and added to it was the play where they punted and the special teams guy apparently knocked the ball out of the end zone before it landed, pinning the Colts to the 1, but the call on the field was that he touched the end zone. The Colts then marched downfield and tied the game at 17 at the time. It was over after that.

Dan Dierdorf uttered the words with 2:21 to go and the score 31-17, "You see this and you think, maybe the possibility of going 0-2 motivated them to this win today."

Thankfully, when they started summing up the game a minute later, they came up with the real reason for this loss today, "The Titans will be spending a couple of days scratching their heads at all the missed opportunities in this game," Dick Enberg said. "Yeah," Dierdorf answers, "I can't help but think this game would have been completely different."

We're talking about a 10-3 score when the 4th and inches play happened. Think about 17-3 going to half. Think about two other situations where they should have gotten the 1st down, easily, that would have led to at least a couple of field goals--This game would have been at least 33-31, if we were even to grant the Colts the same score (I don't believe that's what would have happened).

There's my thoughts...All I can say is, "Dammit."

UT/Florida

College football has been nutty this year with overtime games and missed extra points. Tennessee and Florida, that was a really good game last night.

Cause and effect: Should James Wilhoit have made the game-tying PAT, would the Vols have won that game? Florida would have certainly tried to get in position for a field goal instead of playing for first downs and clock killing, which failed and set up the 50-yarder that won the game.

This kind of play has me puzzled in recent years. Conservative, hoping not to give up the big play. The prevent defense is such a setup. Let's not give up the big play, but let's give up the equivalent of a big play using more time off the clock. The St. Louis Rams easily win the game against the Carolina Panthers by driving for a touchdown in last year's playoffs. But no, conservative, leaving the game to chance in overtime, which is downright stupid. Why can't anyone trust their players to make the right decision?

Oh yeah, annoying moments: mostly UT quarterbacks, but also Florida quarterbacks, getting the play from the sideline while on the line of scrimmage, ready to hike the ball.

My Preds Memories

I don't know if I can put this into any order. My Preds memories are usually quite frustrating, but I have seen my share of highlights.

*-I remember watching that first game on TV, October 10, 1998, a loss to the Florida Panthers, 1-0. I was working at Williamson Square 8 at the time and I had sort of made an office upstairs where I could set up a portable television and watch while I did my easy projection schedule. I remember the fans just roaring throughout the whole thing, and when they lost they still cheered like madmen.

*-I also remember watching a game in the same building, same office, somewhere later in the season in 1998. As we all know, the accompanying music for a penalty and "fang fingers" is the theme from Psycho. At that point in 1998, the remake of Psycho was set to release on December 4. I just happened to have the monitor volume up on auditorium #5, which was near the office. At the precise moment an opposing team's penalty registered at the then Nashville Arena, the trailer for Psycho was playing, and the music from the trailer and the music from the game were in exact sync with each other. The odds, must be mindboggling. I'll never forget that.

*-February 13, 1999. My first game, with Mike and Travis in a 3-2 loss to the Pittsburgh Penguins.

*-January 1, 2000. My brother got primo seats from his company in a game against the San Jose Sharks. 16 seconds after faceoff, Sergei Krivokrasov scored a goal in an eventual 3-2 win.

*-January 1, 2001. I went with KW and friends to see the Preds play Colorado and Patrick Roy. The Preds scored four freaking goals on the best goalie in history, but gave up 4 as well in a 4-4 tie.

*-October 6, 2001. My first Opening Night on Broadway, a game I just went to on a whim by myself to watch a 2-2 tie with the Blues.

*-October 12, 2002. Another opening night, I believe I went to this one with KW as well. If you recall, this was a season in which the Preds hung around 8th place for awhile before tanking. It could not have been foreseen, but the 3-2 loss to eventual 8th place Edmonton was big. Saw the next home game with Edmonton, also with KW, on March 17, 2003 where if the Preds had won, would have been like 3 points behind or something. They lost that game 5-3.

*-Petr Tenkrat scoring the hat trick on December 15, 2001, in a 5-2 win over Chicago and sealing the deal for free tacos. I also remember I went with KW's friend Kevin, and we were sitting three or four rows behind the benches. We randomly picked a seat, leaving one lone seat at the end of our row next to Kevin. And in this seat, a beautiful girl sits. She's rich, young, retired, and loves hockey. I felt like such a fool for sitting in the seat that I sat in...but the Tenkrat thing was nice...

*-KW mentioned the Vancouver game. I remember Bertuzzi in the penalty box while the Preds were embarking on a fruitless power play. Everyone's favorite defenseman, Andy Delmore, does nothing as the puck gets shot past him and a free Bertuzzi comes zooming out of the box to score on a complete mismatch.

*-The only time I ever saw Wayne Gretzky was in a luxury box, January 21, 2002, while the Preds and Phoenix Coyotes played in an impossibly boring 1-0 Coyotes win. He was on the scoreboard and the caption read, "Great One Cam," since they have the "Kiss Cam" and so forth.

I've seen lots and lots of losses and shutouts, but they've always been pleasant diversions. And once again, it would have been nice to see Nashville's team grow. We can only hope, Obi-Wan.

Colts/Titans thoughts

Well I agree with Chris that you can't place all that much stock in a team winning "because they don't want to go 0-2." These guys are professionals (most of them are, excepting a few idiots) and likely get up for most games the same way, and at the same level. But there is some intangible quality for desperation and rivalries. They are human, after all, and not machines. I refuse to believe they can all just turn that human quality off for a game and be robots.

When you see Eddie George pound Ray Lewis in that game last year...there's something extra there because it's the Ravens and Ray Lewis. When you see the Atlanta Thrashers (not football, I know, but pro sports anyway) leading the entire conference in points a third of the way through last season...you know they're playing above their level out of bonding and rememberance of the death of Dan Snyder. When you see the Lakers last year in the playoffs...you know Kobe and Shaq's personality conflict has reached a new level of seriousness. I know I personally think the crowd helped the Preds win those two playoff games by giving them an emotional lift.

Those may not even be the best examples, but I think emotion is an intangible that can definitely impact a team's performance. Now, does "not wanting to go 0-2" translate into an emotional boost enough to affect the game tomorrow? I don't really know. It's not as much motivation as, say, wanting to get to the Super Bowl or avoid getting knocked out of the playoffs. And certainly the Titans are going to equal whatever emotional boost the Colts have with their own boost just from the newly formed rivalry. So I don't think that factor alone will affect this game.

What I think is neat is that both teams' offenses are improved this year, and both teams' defenses are a little more suspect this year. So it should be a high-scoring, back and forth game, decided by a turnover or something wacky like that. Either outcome, I'm really getting pumped for that game. It's pretty rare that I get to see the Colts on the regionally covered game. Plus, even if they lose, I know my other favorite team won.

A Few More

Some more memories...

Getting to see Montreal, THE hockey team, and seeing the Preds win 6-1. I love a good blowout! Also, a hockey puck randomly breaking a pane of glass, which is always a thrill.

Does anyone remember the game where Greg Johnson did a 360 to beat a defender and score a goal against the Red Wings? I was in section 301, so he was skating right at me. One of the goals of the year for all of hockey.

Seeing a game from a luxury box. No one in the box was watching the Preds. They were either talking, drinking, or watching March Madness. I wish I'd been in a real seat (it was cool getting stats at intermission, though).

Seeing a game where the Preds played so poorly that the "Play of the Game" was one of the intermission events.

Seeing a game with Travis and Chris, and laughing loudly at the film clips on the scoreboard. Somehow they worked that night. That's why you go to a game with friends.

And a Walker hat trick last year, with the hats exploding onto the ice!

One last Titans rebuttal

"The Sports Guy" may well be worth reading, but I believe the reasoning on this is faulty. I'll stand by my earlier opinion that this is not a factor (no way they'll start 0-2, that's the best reason? Not big on the Titans, what evidence?).

I will grant, after researching heavily during this post, that playoff teams beginning the year 0-2 are scarce. There are 4 teams in the past 3 years who have begun 0-2 and made the playoffs (Super Bowl champ New England, 2001, Atlanta and Pittsburgh, 2002, and Philadelphia, 2003) That besides those 4, the other 32 went 1-1 or better in their first 2 games, meaning all teams in that remaining 32 who lost the 1st game went on to win the 2nd.
Those 0-2 teams--2003, Philly lost to Tampa (at the time, Super Bowl defending champs) and New England (eventual Super Bowl champ). 2002, Atlanta lost to Green Bay (playoff contender) and Chicago (eventually 7-9), Pittsburgh lost to New England (defending Super Bowl champ) and Oakland (eventual Super Bowl runner-up), and 2001 New England lost to Cincy (6-10) and the Jets (playoff contender). The 0-2 thing doesn't happen often, but given the circumstance, can happen. As you can see, the usual recipe for this is either having two good teams open up your schedule or have a misfire on the 1st week going into a game with a good team the next week. The Colts have this problem in the opening of their schedule. 2 last-year playoff teams on the road.

Oh well, we'll see if I have to eat crow, or the Jim Crow laws, or listen to Sheryl Crow while watching a Russell Crowe or Cameron Crowe movie, or simply The Crow, after tomorrow.

KW's Top Ten Preds Moments

I really like this theme! Good idea Mike. I'll tell everyone up front that I have a strangely selective memory. I may not remember opponents for some of these games, but I remember what I wore and what Chris ate. So, apologies up front for any lacking certain details while going overboard on others. My memories are often more of specific plays or goals than overall games in general. Here are my favorite Preds moments over the life of my fandom.

10. Erat Channels Joe Sakic: I'm not sure it's possible, even if you believe in channeling, to channel a guy who's not dead. But I do know that it was Erat's rookie season. It was also near the end of the season. Erat found the puck in the neutral zone, with two defenders to beat. I vividly recall he had a burst of speed I'd never seen from a Pred. And my jaw hit the floor when he double-deked, waltzing through the two defenders, as I'd seen Sakic do several times the previous playoffs. One defender was left on his butt on the ice. The shot was stopped by the goalie, but the future had been glimpsed. My buddy and I were freaking out, saying..."Did you just see that Predator rookie make that move?!"

9. The Vancouver Melee: Two years ago, near season's end. The whole game had been extremely physical, with the Preds able to draw several penalties on Bertuzzi by frustrating him. Finally, near the end of the game, Bertuzzi lashed out (in an spooky episode of foreshadowing) and put Karlis' face into the boards and proceeded to uppercut him in the jaw several times. We won the game by one, if I remember right (Bertuzzi's anger hurt us by inspiring him to score twice). But the reason I fondly recall this game is that our team responded with an all-out scrum for several seconds. We didn't back down, and quickly jumped in to defend Karlis (who never hurt anyone, he just led the team in blocked shots and hits every year he was on the team). It was a spark I'd not seen yet from the previously tentative Preds. And it was a marvelous example of our needling and getting under opponent's skin becoming a great way to distract teams from their mission of playing hockey. Plus it was really exciting. It's also why Preds fans were ahead of the rest of the world in declaring Bertuzzi was a thug. The world would later catch up to us quite rapidly.

8. Vladdy's Hat Trick: Last year. My friends and I call him Vladdy Hustle, because he always works hard. He's not the fastest, or the most skilled, or the leader, or the enforcer...he just quietly goes out and hustles every single shift. I'm surprised Arkipov hasn't learned this just by playing with Vlad. Anyway, it was extremely rewarding to see his often unnoticed work ethic result in a career night of tangible scoring. He also made a few great moves.

7. Sullivan Arrives in Style: Who can forget this game? For years we'd been sellers at the deadline, though every season I'd hoped we'd jump out and get a high-profile player to get us over the hump. And here was a guy that had stats and reputation before he even came in the door. The fans welcomed him like he was an original Pred, with a huge ovation. And when he scored that first goal....forget it. The place went nuts. And then another? Come on...is he human? By the time the third goal went in we were sure he was literally an angel. I've never seen so many thrown hats for a trick at the GEC as I did that night. He cemented his place in our history and our hearts in one game. One game. He could suck forever and we'll always remember that effort. Side note: Does anyone but me remember the impossible angle his shots were taken from on two of the three goals. On the first one, watching the replay...his feet and entire body were behind the goal line. I don't know how you put a hook on a wrist shot, but he must have, because the laws of physics were clearly ignored on that shot. I still have hopes that he can teach Legwand through example the one lesson Legwand is reluctant to learn: when in doubt...throw a shot on net...and stuff will happen.

6. Avalanche Up Close: Season before last. I have often gone to games by myself, when Chris and the other hockey buddies I have are busy, and always have a good time. But this was the first time I ever took a plunge on a front row seat. Face value said $85, and I got it for $25 from a scalper--God bless Tennessee state law. I sad in the attack twice corner, left of the goal. If you've never sat in the front row, I urge you to do it...at least once. Skip a few games and save money if you have to. It's an entirely different perspective. You see things you'd never seen. You can see details like sweat and blood and facial expressions. You can hear players' on-ice chatter. When they dumped the puck in around the glass I could hear it whizzing by through the cracks between the panes. Peter Forsberg (who I think is the best active player in the world...all around) had his face shmooshed into the glass directly in front of me. I wanted to invite him to dinner, but by the time I thought to...he was gone. It was visceral, palpable, and made the game seem so much faster and so much more real. Plus, it's always a great experience to watch a superstar line-up like the Avs always have. Forsberg, Sakic, Roy, Blake, Hejduk...five of the game's best right there on one team. Clearly one of the best and coolest experiences in my life. I think we lost that game 6-4, but I didn't care that night. I'd seen hockey in a new light, and loved it even more. And I came face to face with one of the all-time greats. Just awesome!

5. Vokoun's first game as the first-string goalie: Now I liked Dunham a lot. Mostly, I think, it was because he was our number one and I think you have to love your number one. When he was the Wall...he was unbeatable. Unfortunately, the Wall just didn't show up as often as we thought he would. I was flat-out stunned when he was traded. Almost depressed a little even. But as the thought percolated in my brain, and I remembered all the groin injuries, and how good Vokoun had proved to be in a back-up role. I began to be more open to it. And that first game back after the trade, I will never forget the crowd's reception and all-night ovations for Vokoun. He played well, sure. But it was more than that. It was our way of saying, "We embrace you. We believe in you. You can do it." I am never more proud of being a Preds fan than during moments like these, because we show our true colors. We have long had to believe in players that didn't always believe in themselves, and even though the attendance numbers weren't always high, those fans bothering to show clearly always had the same, sky-high level of love and support for these Preds...a team the league and the national media have always dogged and disrespected. Games like these remind me why I'd rather live here and root Preds than be in any other city calling any other team my team.

4. Vowel Line Dominance: Opening home game season before last. The vowel line came in right at the start of the first period, and held the puck in the other team's zone for more than two straight minutes. I know they were beat by the end...and we didn't get a goal out of it. But it will always be with me for several reasons. I pride myself on thinking I pay attention to small details in a game (for instance, anyone who's really watched David Legwand in the last year realizes he's been crucial to our success. He doesn't score as much as we'd like, but he steals, sets up plays, sees the ice, and has been a madman in the area of intangibles and easily noticed skills). But this night the entire crowd seemed to understand what was going on. Everyone seemed to grasp that not only is it hard to keep the puck in the offensive zone for very long, but that it's hard to play hockey period for much longer than 45 seconds. By the end of the two-minute stretch the entire crowd was roaring, on its feet. I felt at the time that this was a defining moment for our team...a symbol of our new grit and determination. "We're not going to back down. We'll wear ourselves out completely in the first two minutes if it means we get to own you and control the game." I was giddy.

3. Preds Rally in Detroit: I had to listen to it on the radio, mostly because the game was away...at the Joe. Now though we always seemed to have motivation to play these guys tough, Detroit had basically owned our butts from the dawn of our franchise. I'd even given up by the start of the third. Down three goals, it seemed we were on the verge of another sad turning point, further proving we'd not yet crossed over to that next level. But boy was I surprised. We fight back and score four unanswered in the third to take the game--stealing the two points away from the consumate professional Wings. Sure, everyone talks about this game as a turning point for the season. But I think it was a turning point for the entire future of the franchise. This was the game we realized we were through puberty and had become full-on men. This was the game where we didn't keep up with the big boys, we blew them away. Have you ever heard the Joe that quiet after a loss? Nobody even believed it until the next day. I remember Pete talking about the looks on the Wings' faces. It was remarkable. A corner was turned. And we didn't look back. Sure we'd won big games, but never so defining as this. And never from behind in such flamboyant fashion as this. Plus, there's something about listening to a game like this on the radio, when you can't see anything, that makes it so much more urgent and exciting. And I never spent so much time in my car right outside my apartment simply because I didn't want to miss something while I ran in to the house.

2. Game 6 Support: How can we forget that ovation, beginning late in the third when the crowd had realized it was over, and had quickly gone through the grieving process..and realized we had only a few more moments to thank the team for the ride of our lives. The roar grew slowly at first, and after about thirty seconds the rest of the crowd caught on, and the ensuing cheer was nearly deafening. Loudest moment in the GEC I'd ever experienced (imagine what will happen when we win the Cup!!). Vokoun got maybe the lion's share of the yells, but the team knew it was for all of them. I was proud of our team...who I think had clearly overacheived based on what the world thought they could do. And the entire playoff experience had been so overwhelming for me that I was literally clapping and hooting my thanks for the chance to see it. I'll never forget it. I might have even come close to tears.

1. Games' 3 & 4 Excitement: Being at these games was life-altering, as I finally had first-hand knowledge previously only held by the elite teams' fans. I got to taste playoff hockey. The noise was completely unexpected. I expected it to be loud, but not that loud. Or that sustained. This team's fans were hopped up on goofballs and ready to party. Legwand's breakaway for our first goal that first home game...gave me shivers. After seeming tentative in mundane, every day games, here...he was as confident as if he were one of the all-time greats. Could not have asked for a better way to start the scoring. I remember the fans in between periods getting in fun little shouting matches with Wings' fans in line for the bathroom. I remember how few Wings' fans were even there, after accounting for half the audience during regular season showdowns between the two games. I remember Vokoun playing like a madman. I remember how easy it seemed for our guys to quickly crawl under the veteran Wings' skin and disrupt their game. We gave Calgary the blueprint you know. That's how they beat them...by getting physical early and disrupting the style of play the Wings hoped to acheive. I remember Chelios being a sissy. I remember how loud the chants were--I heard them again later watching my tape of the broadcast. And I remember the giddy abandon of the fans exiting the building after the wins. Strangers were slapping me on the back as though I'd been on the ice. We were singing and chanting and cheering down the long staircase, out into the street, and from our cars in traffic filing out of time. Just a drunken stupor of fun and excitement. Those two games will forever be in my memory just as they happened. We showed the world we could be tough, and we could take down the mighty Wings. We showed our city pride. We showed our vocal chord strength. Of course, I could never use words to truly convey the experience...as I told my parents at the time (Lightning fans who hadn't had the joy of seeing live playoff hockey). My folks were quite jealous, until they got to see the Lightning win a finals game live and in person, at which point I became the jealous one. There is, I am convinced, no crazier, more exciting, more stupifying, more compelling experience than a playoff hockey win. If I wasn't hooked already, these games sealed the deal. I will always be a hockey fan because of these playoff wins. Always.

PS-You actually can still move down in the third period to closer seats. At least, you could last year, because that's my M.O. I buy a $10 ticket from the box office, then move down late in the first period. You just have to act like you belong, and be careful to avoid the one or two ushers that do check for tickets. Most of the ushers are too busy talking to a friend or a cop to care or notice...but there are a few who police the moving down. I usually spend a couple moments when the play is stopped scoping out my spot and the usher I want to slip by. Never been caught once...and strangely enough, I've never sat in a seat where the ticket holder later showed up. I do imagine that as we get better as a franchise it'll become more difficult. But that's a trade off I'm willing to accept if it means the team gets the fan response and respect I feel they've deserved for a while.

Notes

Okay, so what did Vandy do today. I see they lost in OT. It's like Woody's the coach again. Actually, I liked him as the coach, because at least they were in games. An OT loss is better than usual. But still...

The Sports Guy has his picks up for week 2, and he's always worth reading. His take on the big game is the same as mine: "No way they start out 0-2." I can't see it happening. But if it does, huge mo for the Titans.

Maybe Michigan just isn't all that good. Two rough weeks in a row.

Does anyone care about the Ryder Cup? A team competition in an individual sport? And what, am I supposed to cheer against Europe of something? That's a whole continent! It's not like we're facing the CCCP or anything, not even an individual country. It's like the Davis Cup - I don't mind that they hold it, but let me know when they play another major, okay?

Got a good comment from Charlie from the Pred's Den on the memories post, and I hope for more.

And, in my best country accent, I've got to say it...... IT'S FOOTBALL TIME IN TENNESSEE! Go Vols! Yee-haw!

Titans/Colts, part III

Of course, I have a stat-driven take on anything in sports and I am a fiend when it comes to raiding sports history for information. And using last year's totals, I believe, are a good measure since these teams are not much different from last year.

Last year's games:

Colts 33 Titans 7 (in Indy)

An absolute drubbing that was made further painful by a late Billy Volek interception run 75 yards back for a touchdown by Nick Harper. Essentially, there was no chance to win a game that was 26-7 at the time. In this game:

Manning: 14-21, 173 yds, 1 TD
Edge: 30 rush, 120 yds, 1 TD

TE Dallas Clark had 4 rec, 63 yds., Harrison 3 for 59 to make up the bulk of Manning's day.

McNair: 15-24, 138 yds, 1 TD (to Calico)
Total rushing yds: 53 (George had 46)

WR Derrick Mason had 10 rec, 98 yds. There were many other receivers who got some yards during garbage time.

Turnovers: McNair lost a fumble, Volek threw an interception when the game was over, essentially. The Colts did not turn the ball over.

Colts 29 Titans 27 (in Nashville)

The Titans came back from a 29-14 deficit and failed on a 2-point conversion at the end.

Manning: 22-34, 228 yds
Edge: 28 rush, 97 yds, 2 TD

WR Harrison had 124 yards, including a one-handed, stretching-the-length-of-his-body dive for a catch I'll never forget.

McNair: 22-38, 235 yds, 2 TD
George, Brown, and McNair combined for 94 yards (Holcombe had a -1 carry to make it 93), George 51 of them.

Three receivers had big days: McCareins (4 rec, 76 yds), Mason (6/64, 1 TD), Kinney (4/41)

Do you see what I notice in all of this? The best run defense gave up 217 yards and 3 touchdowns to Edgerrin James. And despite keeping a streak alive by not allowing a 100-yard rusher at home again, Edge ran for 97 in that game at the Coliseum--at that point we're splitting hairs.

The Colts allowed 146 rushing yards total in those two games, but we can't focus on that too much because we know what Eddie George is in this point of his career.

Let's also take note that the Titans are playing some off-field games with the Colts by listing guys as questionable or out when they are going to play. Chris Brown is going to play, guys. There really is no question.

Tight ends were big for the Titans, as Kinney and Shad Meier racked up over 100 yards in both games, tremendous output for that position. The same goes for the Colts, however.

The pass defense of the Titans actually came out pretty good, and if not for the miraculous catch of Harrison, would have held Manning to well under 400 total in both games. As we know, Manning is capable of hitting that in one game. I wonder if the Titans decided to protect more against the pass, which allowed Edge's big days.

We can't focus on games played previously to swing our vote one way or another. Last year, before the 33-7 asskicking, the Colts beat the Browns 9-6. I'm sure that instilled Colts fans with a ton of confidence going into the Titan game (the Titans beat the Raiders 25-20, but no one knew that the Raiders were going to suck so badly). Adjustments are always made, and matchups are different, so week 2 will vary enormously from week 1.

So what do we know? Here are some things:

Edgerrin James will be able to run effectively in this game.
Steve McNair will be able to throw effectively in this game.
Peyton Manning was clearly challenged in both games.

X-Factors: Chris Brown is better than Eddie George, and if you get a better rushing offense then you will be able to keep the Colts off the field longer, which was clearly a sore spot last year (64:44-55:16, Colts, in the two combined games, but where it mattered most was in the close game--33:54-26:06) I think we all agree it's going to be close, so that stat is important. If you can sway 4-5 minutes on that ratio, that might be one less score for the opposition. The laugher game was close in TOP but only because the Colts struck so quickly and played a bunch of garbage football in the end. Turnovers, I can't predict, but by looking at last year's stats where the Colts turned the ball over not one time to the Titans' six (Game 1: McNair fumbled, Volek got intercepted, Game 2: McCareins fumbled, Eddie Berlin fumbled twice, and Shad Meier fumbled), you'd give the edge to the Colts. What's interesting is that the stats for TOP and turnovers just don't match the scores from those games.

Here's what I think, though: the Colts cannot rely on turnover ratio or a miraculous catch to win this game. And you can't predict these factors, just like injuries, in coming up with a solid prediction.

Truly, you'll realize this from me and I know I'm in the minority here when it comes to this, but I do not believe in the following things:

-Games played for revenge. People always bring this up in analysis of a game. I find it to be an incredibly inaccurate measure of who actually wins in these games. Even if you were able to come up with actual revenge games in which the team seeking revenge got it, I can give you 2 more that refute this claim. In this case, I am throwing out the "revenge" factor for the Titans after losing 2 games last year to the Colts.

-A team just willing itself not to be 0-2 or whatever bad situation that losing would bring. This is the NFL and everyone plays to win, and just because one team has motivation not to be 0-2, there is another team that has motivation not to be 1-1, added to that the prospect of losing an early division game. If the Colts have a true edge due to motivation, then I'll never watch a Titans game again.

-This doesn't apply in this case, but I do not believe in teams "looking ahead to next week," either. This is the same "stat" as the revenge factor. These aren't concrete things and cannot be measured, and therefore, meaningless. The only thing I truly believe in is confidence. I believe a team that didn't have it before will lose most of the time, and if something occurs that gives the team confidence (like a good practice, a good game plan that is executed, good decisions, plays, etc., in other words, concrete displays of goodness) they will likely win most of the time.

With the above factors figured in I take the Titans in this game, 34-24. Yeah, I'm not picking that close of a game, actually. It boils down to the fact that I think the Titans have a better defense than the Colts and they have a better rushing offense than last year, which is what I believe the stats say cost the Titans last year. In other words, my reasoning goes this way: Allowing certain factors that you believe to be concrete, what are the factors that either change the outcome or make the outcome the same? I believe the evidence points this way, may the players on the field prove one way or the other.